The Energy Input-output Structure Analysis And Carbon Emissions Outlook Of Jiangsu Province

Jiangsu is one of the developed provinces which consume large quantities of energy,but it lacks of energy. Consider the resource condition; the rapid economicdevelopment is based on the consumption of large quantities of resources supplies,and the energy structure of long-standing problem of over-reliance on coal.This paper firstly analyzed the general situation of energy condition and thedevelopment of economic in Jiangsu province. The rapid economic development isexactly based on the consumption of large quantities of resources, so it’s obviously toformulate policies to reduce emission.Using the technology of input-output, the anther established the table ofinput-output of Jiangsu Province in year2002and2007. Energy consumption inmanufacturing sector has increased, and accounted for the vast majority of the totalenergy consumption. Comparing with the year2002, dependence changes ininter-industry, the dependence on manufacturing are higher and increased. In energyconsumption, the first and the tertiary industry decline in the proportion of energyconsumption while the secondary industry’s energy consumption has risen.After predicting the energy input-output table of Jiangsu Province in2020by theuse of RAS method and scenario analysis, we find some conclusion: By2020, energydemand in Jiangsu Province will reach475,765,800tons of standard coal,self-sufficiency rate of only4.95%; The structure of energy consumption of coal willno longer be a major consumer of energy in Jiangsu Province; Energy consumptionper10,000Yuan GDP will drop to0.67tce, compared with2009, dropped by nearlyone-third of energy intensity greatly reduced.According to the energy input-output table based on the energy consumption datato calculate carbon dioxide emissions in2002,2007,2020, there is a huge carbondioxide emissions with the rapid economic growth in Jiangsu Province. The amountof carbon dioxide per capita in2020will reach to12.45tons/person, four times in2002, but emissions per unit of GDP will be controlled, which drops to1.38tons/million in2002emissions of65%.