Decision-making Behavior In Response To Unconventional Emergency

There have been several unconventional emergencies that occurred on our planet recent years. Because of the destructive power and the difficulty for dec is ion-makers in responding, it is of great necessity to identify the emergence and development principle of unconventional emergency, to optimize the dec is ion-making behavior in response to unconventional emergency and to research the model and system of unconventional emergency management.Unconventional emergency can be defined as an event which has not been experienced yet, occurs suddenly, can create a huge disaster easily, is difficult to control, and may cause significant impact on society. The nature of unconventional emergency includes instantaneous outbreak, serious destruction, rare scenarios and complex situations. The decision-making characteristics of unconventional emergency include time pressure, severe consequences, public concern, continuous decision-making, lack of experience and scarce information. These are the factors which impact on the dec is ion-making behavior of decision-makers by unconventional emergency environment. In addition, the psychological factors of dec is ion-makers themselves also affect their dec is ion-making behavior, which includes adaptation ability, stress ability, risk preference and negative emotions. There exists a complex interaction among all these factors.This paper first focuses on the influence on individual dec is ion-making behavior by psychological factors, including stress ability and risk preference, in unconventional emergency. By designing and implementing a psychological experiment which simulates the unconventional emergency scenario to verify the impact of these two factors on the individual decision-making behavior. The results of the experiment confirm that the stress ability of an individual significantly affects the accuracy of its dec is ion-making behavior and the risk preference of an individual affects its risk decision attitude largely in unconventional emergencies.Based on the conclusion posed above, this paper comes to study the group dec is ion-making behavior of unconventional emergency. Firstly, the paper makes comprehensive use of evolutionary game theory and system dynamics to simulate the evolution process of unconventional emergency decision-making behavior on macro level; secondly, it makes integrated employ of Q learning algorithm and cellular automata to simulate the evolution process of unconventional emergency dec is ion-making behavior on micro level. The conclusions of these two methods are roughly similar, but slightly different in detail.The paper proposes several optimization suggestions on the decision-making behavior in unconventional emergencies based on the simulation analysis above, which are listed as following. Firstly, ensure the consistency of the risk preference of decision-makers as much as possible. Secondly, choose different decision-makers in risk preference according to different unconventional emergencies and the stages of decision-making. Thirdly, it is best not to choose decision-makers with the same stress ability but different risk preference. Fourthly, set different weights to decision-makers with different stress ability. Fifthly, provide sufficient information to decision-makers of the group decision-making. Sixthly, carry out training for the stress ability of decision-makers to increase their stress ability.