A Comparative Study Of Relationship Between Industrial Structure And Trade Structure Between Shanghai And Hong Kong

On the basis of development status of industrial structure and trade structure both of Shanghai and Hong Kong, this paper established mathematical models in order to empirical research the relationship and the combined effect between industrial structure and trade structure.Firstly, in chapter two and chapter three, by compared with the current development of trade structure and industrial structure between Shanghai and Hong Kong, can be concluded that: First, the development status in both of two places show that trade patterns quite different while trade ommondity structure similar of them. Second, a series of industrial structure measure indicators reflect that (1) Hong Kong’s degree of industrial sophistication is better than Shanghai’s, it mainly performance in which the proportion of tertiary industry in Hong Kong is far height than in Shanghai;(2) according to the Hoffman industrialized index, Shanghai is already in the fourth stage of the degree of industrialization, while Hong Kong is still in the second stage. And third, Shanghai is a hinterland type Trade Center City, and Hong Kong is a transit-type trade center city, which inferred from the above results.Secondly, this paper selection a mathematical model proposed by Chenery(1975) in the chapter4, and the model was necessary corrected. This mathematical model is used in the empirical analysis of interaction between industrial structure and trade structure of two places. The empirical results show that Shanghai and Hong Kong have different factor endowments:the factor endowment of Shanghai lies in abundant labor and industrialization, however, the factor endowments of Hong Kong is its excellent location. The results of the model also revealing the more conlusion what deserved to be studied. However, these conclusions are not systemic, which is unfavorable for the summary of the final conclusions, and thus it needs to be further study in the combined effect of these two structures.Thirdly, the index system of sturctural optimization of both industrial structure and trade structure in Shanghai and Hong Kong was built in the chapter5:industrial structure optimization index system include structural sophistication index and structure coordination index; trade structure optimaization system consists of four latitude including commodith structure, the structure of trade patterns, regional structure and the proportion of trade in services. And then, I was using the Gray Target Theory to calculate the optimization index of trade structure into the bull’s-eye. Finally, the Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test was used to test the relationship among composite index trade sturcture, industrial structural sophistication index and industrial structure coordination index, so as to comparative study combined effect of industrial structure and trade structure in Shanghai and Hong Kong. The results show that the export-oriented strategy caused the adjustment of the relationship between industrial structure and trade strucutre, Hong Kong is to come out from the process of "de-industrialization" by adjusting the industrial structure. This conculsion is greatly verified the speculation from aspects of data in Chapter2to Chapter4.In chapter6, a model of the adjustment of the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure has been built according to the above-mentioned research. Four different points during the process of adjustment of industrial structure and trade structure between Shanghai and Hong Kong were summarized:(1) different policies of the pilot;(2) different dominant trade pattern;(3) different affect ways from the re-allocation of production factors to export structure;(4) different response path from industrial restructuring to allocation of production factors. Then, this paper learned from the experience and lessons during processing in adjustment of relationship between industrial structure and trade structur, and combined the results of previous study above, four-point proposal of the relationship optimization between the industrial structure and trade structure were suggested:First, it is necessary that optimize the industrial structure must play a core objectives in order to prevent trade structure restrict industrial restructuring. Second, the responsiveness of the allocation of production factors on the adjustment of the industrial structure should be improved. Third, thoughtout reasonable configuration mode of trade structure, Shanghai can promote the coordinated development of the three industries. And fourth, nurturing potential factor endowments can prevent structural imbalance.