Comparative Study Of Demand-Led Industrial Relevance In China’s Coastal Region

Input-output is always confined to analyze specific region, and input-outputstudies are rarely to be taken advantage for multi-regional comparative industrialresearch. In this paper, input-output analysis of China’s coastal provinces are made tocompare their similarities and differences in industrial association, which I expect toenrich and deepen the research in this field.Input-Output model provides2routes for both flows of funds and goods. Withthis, four things are discussed in this paper:1, Two-Duals Structure(TDS) is drawn toindicate both two flows and two routes, and to show inappropriateness of currentCoefficients Analysis.2, redefined Indirect Input Coefficient based upon TDS, whichis named Round Coefficient.3, in order to take advantage of Round Coefficient, themethod to estimate data in the Fourth Quadrant is explored.4, Round Coefficientanalysis is used to discuss Tianjin City in2007.Input-Output table provides two abstractive substances which flow: money flowand product flow. Meanwhile, both flows are hold within two paths for circulation.This two flows in two channels within Input-output Model is called Two-DualsStructure(TDS) in this paper. Traditional input-output coefficients are not strictlybased on TDS, resulting in a variety of logical inappropriateness. With these above,Indirect Input Coefficient and Indirect Added-Value Coefficient are redefined, whichare named Rounds Coefficients, so as to establish the analytical framework ofinter-regional comparative study.Besides the basic information of the first, second and third quadrants of theInput-Output table, the fourth quadrant is also required to calculate RoundCoefficients. With the fourth quadrant, how national income out of added value isconsumed will be naturally shown. Together with the existing input-output table andother statistics for coastal provinces in2007, the fourth quadrant data are to beestimated to enable Round Coefficient analysis.Different from the traditional input-output methods, economy’s dynamicsituations in different periods can be measured with the help of Round Coefficient.First, this paper examines the long-term economic trends: how changes in demand will effect industrial structures; whether the processes of economic stabilization differfrom one province to another. Second, China’s economic plan is generally set within aperiod of five years, so the third year of economic is key for our short-termconsiderations; leading industries decide economy’s basics, so these sectors’ impact ofoverall economy and the ultimate distribution of national income are concerned.The focus of Four Trillion Investment by large-scale infrastructure constructionsis initially aimed to boost the whole social investment, while hoping to narrow theregional gap in China and to expand domestic for industrial upgrading in the easternregion. Round Coefficients applied to the eastern provinces in2007is very helpful toshow changes in industrial structure resulting from the short-term economic stimulusplans, and is making possible the prediction and evaluation of the effect of FourTrillion Investment, which the central and local governments have made in responseto the economic crisis.