Study On Export Potential Of China’s Agricultural Products From Perspective Of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Shanghai Cooperation organisation(SCO) was established upon china’s advocation and was named in china’s city name. Since the member countries signed the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States and multilateral trade and Economic Cooperation Program" in September,2003. In2010The first convention of agriculture ministry of SCO was held in Beijing, and again emphasized agricultural cooperation was the significant sector in regional cooperation. Therefore to study on the export potential of china’s agricultural product, from the perspective of SCO, has dominant and positive role in further deepen the agricultural trade and cooperation between china and other member countries in SCO.This paper, on the basis of analyzing enormous data and collecting related materials, investigated agriculture production, supply and self-sufficient level of agricultural products of the member countries of SCO, then calculated the comparative advantage of agricultural products after examining agri-trade of all member countries, what is more, this paper, using constructed modified Constant Market Share model(CMS), found out the increasing factors and barriers for China’s agricultural products exporting member countries, and used Grey Model with Matlab programming calculation to forecast export increase, the conclusions can be summarized as follows:Higher complementarities on agricultural resources and production structure was found between China and other member countries in SCO. The agri-products were same to some extent in member countries in SCO, but the self-sufficient level varied dramatically. The comparative advantage of agri-products and trade structures of member countries primarily reflected their agricultural resource endowment, China mainly exported horticulture products, and imported bulk commodities, conversely, other member countries majorly exported bulk commodities and imported horticultural products, animal products as well as fishery products. Between2004and2010, the import increase of agricultural products of member countries in SCO was greatly positive to the export increase of China’s agricultural products, however, the low market competitiveness had negative role During the period of2011-2015, China’s agricultural products, especially horticultural products and fishery products exporting to member countries will experience fast increase.Upon the above conclusion, we further outlook the export prospects of china’ agricultural products went to member countries in SCO, and then propose a series of policy implication upon existing problems.