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Prices Were High On The Analysis Of The Impact Of Chinese Economic

Posted on:2013-05-05Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H HuoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330392453783Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Oil as a basic energy materials and important chemical raw material, is toguarantee economic development and political stability of the countries of the world,essential goods for military security, evoked a number of major international events, andan increasingly significant role in international politics. Oil price changes for all aspectsof the field of global economic influence is huge. Since2003, the International crude oilprices continued to rise, constantly refresh history, emerged as a volatile, long duration,increased uncertainty and other new features. Continued high global crude oil prices,shock,Chinese economy on oil demand growing demand for imported crude oil inparticular cases, concerned about the impact of high oil prices on our national economyand to develop appropriate energy policy and oil strategy has far-reaching significance.Recent years, oil prices running high as the background, recalling the historicalvolatility of oil prices, described the recent oil price run high position, analysis of thecharacteristics and causes of the prices were high, on this basis, combined withdomestic and foreign research results, respectively, from the macro and micro theeconomics of the tremendous impact of high oil prices to Chinese economic-depthanalysis that caused in recent years, continued high oil prices mainly due to factorsincluding the relationship between supply and demand factors, the factors of thedepreciation of the dollar, speculation shock running, geopolitical factors, as well asnatural climate factors, the relationship between supply and demand is the mostfundamental and most important factor causing oil price volatility.With Chinese rapideconomic development and the continuous improvement of dependence on foreign oil,Chinese national economy sensitive to oil prices continuously enhance the fluctuationsin international oil prices, oil prices continued to run high, causing a great deal ofimpact on Chinese economy.In this paper, a computable general equilibrium (CGE)model to calculate the national economy, macroeconomic variables, analysis, Theresults show that: rising oil prices impact on Chinese economy is negative, will lead tothe slowdown in the growth rate of Chinese GDP, welfare and people’s income decline,rising prices, investment, the decline in exports, increase in foreign exchangeexpenditure; addition, conduction through the price, international oil prices havebrought, directly or indirectly, significant influence but also to Chinese oil industrychain related industries.While performing macroeconomic analysis, the use ofmicroeconomics theory, and analyzes manufacturers and consumer behavior in thecontext of high oil prices; using game theory to rising oil prices, the government, oil companies and consumers strategy selection process and the results of a specificanalysis and comparison, that only build a new coordination mechanism betweenstakeholders such as government, oil companies and consumers, domestic oil prices toadjust to the market, while continuing to strengthen macro regulation, in order torealize the social optimal equilibrium.Finally, on the basis of the above study, thecombination of Chinese economic system characteristics, this paper puts forward aseries of countermeasures and suggestions to address the impact of high oil prices.
Keywords/Search Tags:Oil prices, Economic impact, Economic Analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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