The Research On Grain Production Structural Evolution In Heilongjiang Province

Grain output structure is the basis of the structure of grain production, and it is a comprehensive reflection of the interaction of factors that influence grain yield, and it is also the final result of the production structure adjustment and optimization. An analysis of the state of the structural evolution of food output, as well as the prediction and optimization of its structure, in essence, is a macro study of food output in Heilongjiang Province, which is of a certain practical significance to the researching of food production in Heilongjiang Province.Yield structural problems in grain production are discussed in the paper. The main task of the paper is to analyze the evolution of structure of grain yield from1981to2011in Heilongjiang Province, to predict the structure of from2012to2015in Heilongjiang Province, and to optimize structure of grain yield in2015in Heilongjiang Province.Firstly, through static analysis of grain yield in Heilongjiang Province, an initial understanding of the evolution of food production in Heilongjiang Province is achieved, according to such indicators as the main crop yield, crop acreage, per unit area yield form1981to2011in Heilongjiang Province,Secondly, the paper aims at defining grain and Grain output structure, to determine the yield structure as the object of study. The paper also puts structure entropy in industrial economics, Structure conversion speed coefficients, and the conversion direction coefficient into the study of output structure, with the establishment of evaluation indicators system for the evolution of output structure, and then the above-mentioned indicators are analyzed.Taking the whole country as a research background, the evolution of grain output structure in Heilongjiang Province are evaluated through the establishment of the analytical tables and analysis diagram, and by applying method of shift share analysis, the total growth of each time yield is divided into national share component, structure deviation component, competitiveness deviation component. Through the above two aspects, a more comprehensive analysis of the evolution of grain output structure in Heilongjiang Province is conduced macroscopically Thirdly, the paper introduces the grey system and grey prediction modeling mechanism, and builds a grain output prediction GM(1.1) model. Taking an approach of production prediction first and then forecast of structure of grain production, the paper predicts grain output structure in the coming4years in Heilongjiang province, and through examination of the results by using such three indexes as correlation, variance ratio, and small error probability, results indicate that, prediction is acceptable, the average accuracy being96.48%.Finally, through the observation and analysis of the structural entropy H change, total output and the proportion of higher-yielding crops, the paper proves that the structure of entropy can be a good description of the increasing trend of grain output in Heilongjiang Province and the structure of food production-driven trend. An Optimization model and an improvement model are established according to crop production status in Heilongjiang Province, by taking the horizontal and vertical contrast of three kinds of major crops production from the2002to2011and the predictive value of the same period. Through the calculation of the specific data structure, combined with the planning and the direction of development of the grain output in Heilongjiang Province, the paper comes to the conclusion that the model is effective, and the optimized value can be used as target for future planning.