An Analysis On The Change Of Grain Consumption Structure And Influencing Factors

With the rising of residents' income level and further development of urbanization,China's grain consumption level has been continuously increasing.However,the dietary structure of residents features presents a problem of insufficient nutrition and excessive consumption,which goes against the improvement of residents' dietary consumption quality.This is an important constituent of China's grain security strategy.Based on the perspective of nutrition and health,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of residents' grain consumption and puts forward the research hypothesis of the mechanism of grain consumption deviation.Besides,the paper collects the panel data of residents' grain consumption in 19 provinces and cities from 1997 to 2016 as the sample data and summarizes the features of current grain consumption structure.And then,based on the balanced diet mode of Dietary guidelines for Chinese Residents,the paper also calculates the deviation degree between residents' actual grain consumption structure and target grain consumption structure to analyze their differences.Moreover,the paper empirically analyzes the influence factors of the deviation of residents' grain consumption by building the multivariate logit model,and empirically analyzes the influence factors of the deviation degree of residents' grain consumption by building the bidirectional fixed effect model to validate the proposed research hypotheses accordingly.In the end,the paper also proposes relevant policy suggestions in order to provide scientific reference for relevant government departments to formulate grain security strategies.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,the grain consumption of Chinese residents has certain degree of deviation from the target consumption.The direct grain consumption is gradually changing from relatively high consumption to inadequate consumption while the indirect grain consumption is gradually changing from inadequate consumption to excessive consumption.The positive deviation of residents' direct grain consumption is mainly influenced by Engel coefficient,indirect grain comprehensive price change rate,the proportion of employment in the secondary industry and regional differences;the negative deviation of residents' direct grain consumption is mainly influenced by urbanization rate,per capita disposable income,the proportion of the working-age population,the proportion of employment in tertiary industry and percentage of college degree or above.The positive deviation of indirect grain consumption is mainly influenced by urbanization rate,per capita disposable income,direct price change rate,the proportion of the working-age population,the proportion of employment in tertiary industry,percentage of college degree or above and indirect grain yield per capita;the negative deviation of indirect grain consumption is mainly influenced by Engel coefficient,indirect grain comprehensive price change rate,the proportion of employment in the secondary industry and regional differences.Secondly,among the influencing factors of the deviation degree of direct grain consumption,the Engel coefficient and the proportion of employment in the secondary industry have a more significant positive impact on the deviation degree of the minimum target,urbanization rate and the proportion of employment in tertiary industry have a more significant negative impact on the deviation degree of the minimum target,the Engel coefficient and the proportion of employment in the secondary industry have a more significant positive impact on the deviation degree of the maximum target,regional differences and urbanization rate have a more significant negative impact on the deviation degree of the maximum target.Among the influencing factors of the deviation degree of indirect grain consumption,the positive influence of per capita disposable income,urbanization rate and the proportion of employment in tertiary industry is more significant on the deviation degree of the minimum target,the negative influence of Engel coefficient and regional difference on the minimum deviation degree is more significant,the positive influence of urbanization rate,the proportion of employment in tertiary industry and regional difference on the maximum target deviation is more significant,the negative influence of Engel coefficient on the maximum deviation degree is more significant.