China's Regional Economic Growth Convergence Analysis

Under the background of economic globalization and union, the hypothesisof convergence of economic growth has been analyzed with a lot of cases indifferent countries and areas, but the hypothesis has not been confirmedbecause of complexity of the real world and diversity of economic data, sothat the technological ways of the hypothesis should be further certificated.Chinese economics have realized rapid growth from the reform and opening-uppolicy, at the same time, the difference of growth among the regions haveabsorbed many economist’s extensive concern. The hot spot of economic growththeories are how to interpret economics growing with the time and how tointerpret the difference of the regions.Economic growth is a complex system in which all factors affect each other,therefore, we should research economic growth from the angle of system, wecan achieve better conclusion. On base of analyzing all kinds of hypothesisof convergence, the paper adopts the data of per capita GDP of29regions tofind that there is phased mechanism of σ-convergence on Chinese an her threelarge regions’ economic growth by selecting standard difference andcoefficient of variation to analyze the difference of the regions.At the same time, regard the actuality of Chinese economic growth, divideinto1978-1991and1992-2009from the reform and opening-up policy. We chooseappropriate indicators and data to use the Barro and Sara-I-Martin’s modeland MRW model to analyze the difference among Chinese regions. The result showthat there is obvious β-convergence on Chinese growth in1978-1991, whilethe rate of β-convergence in1992-2009is low, as that investment、openingand government expenditure are main factors affecting the rate of Chineseeconomic growth.As the new classic economic growth theory assume that all the regions havesame rate of technique progress. So the paper adopts Dowrick and Roger’s modelsto analyze the mechanism of convergence on Chinese and her three large regions’economic growth. The Dowrick and Rogers’s models add the capital quantity toBarro and Sara-I-Martin’s model to express the progressive of the marginalprofit of capital affect on convergence, and see per capita GDP as Indentation of technology, finding that there is convergence on new classic and neweconomic growth of China and her three large regions, but the rate ofconvergence on new economic growth is very low. Then the result ofnonparametric regression shows that the difference of the regions will growin long-term if the way of economic growth was not altered.In order to get better conclusion, we select the panel data models andadopt many ways to estimate these models. On base of contrasting the resultof estimation, we select the models which have a better result of estimation,which are the paper’s basis of analyzing the theory. According to the analysis,we find the mechanism and characteristic of convergence on Chinese economicgrowth, and we pose out some suggestion on Chinese economic growth.