XZ Company Financial Risk Pre-warning Analysis

Along with our country market economy system reform of deepening and the rapiddevelopment of capital markets, the listed companies in China never fails to face the threatof financial risk, whether investment activities, and financing activities or cash flowoperation, because the market competition intensifies or internal poor management, manycompanies appear in financial trouble. In order to strengthen the company the capabilityagainst risks, the excavations of the company in the process of operation of potentialfinancial risk, and adopt reasonable effective early warning model and financial indexsystem of the company’s financial risk warning analysis it is very important.The existing research results in this paper, on the basis of relevant financial risk earlywarning the analytical method integration to XZ company as a case, the financial risk statusfirst routine analysis, preliminary determination on the necessity of the early warninganalysis, and then using the Z-score model and F-score model to its financial risk earlywarning analysis. Because this paper the selection of model is based on the public companyon the basis of related financial data, so in the applicability of the model, this article throughto214home mechanical equipment manufacturing listed companies in2007-2010thefinancial risk of the predicted values and the actual financial status of the year compared tothe method, validation of listed companies in China model of financial risk early warninganalysis of application. According to the analysis of this paper, to the financial condition ofthe company continued to worsen, Z forecast failure probability model is very high, but tohave a significantly improve financial condition of the company. Z model the forecastaccuracy is very high. Although after applicability test model the forecast accuracy high, andthe actual operation situation and XZ company more fit. but its defects is only a year topredict the future of the financial conditions, and can’t predict two to three years of thecompany’s financial situation.Because the XZ warning analysis by using the model of the company in2011as a goodfinancial situation made consistent prediction, but this does not mean that the company in thedaily operation process won’t encounter the financial risk, at the same time, in order to makeup the deficiency of the prediction model, this paper makes use of the related statements andfinancial indicators analyzed data, through the change tendency of the index and its internallogical relationship to reveal XZ company daily financial operations of potential risks.Through the analysis found that XZ fundraising risk management, prepaid receivable riskprevention and prepare cash budget is to be further perfected. Domestic to financial risk pre-warning the related research start later, research resultscompared with foreign countries also very few, have a lot of problems still is worth deeplyresearch, especially for the company’s financial risk pre-warning has the actual operation ofthe feasibility study.