Empirical Research On The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Of The Real Estate Market

From1998, after the abolition of the welfare housing system, the real estate market is developing rapidly, and increasingly become the pillar industry of national economy. With the acceleration of the Real Estate Market, real estate prices continued to rise, not only beyond the basic income level of residents, and affect the quality of life of residents, but also not conducive to the national economy, the price has become a widespread economy problem. The financial crisis that began in2008from the U.S. housing market, caused a global scale economic crisis and economic recession. The end of2009to2010, the State Council has issued a strict regulation of real estate policy-the "National10","Sales Order", the implementation of the policy has made a certain tier cities house prices fall. Therefore, how to make effective use of macroeconomic policy coordinate the relationship between economic development and real estate market, has important practical significance.In this paper, from theory to empirical research methods, to discuss monetary policy on real estate market, real estate market on the real economy. The theory components include:the theory of monetary policy objectives and tools of monetary policy, monetary policy affects the real estate market transmission mechanism, the dual properties of the real estate, the impact factors of real estate prices, real estate prices on the real economy. The empirical part of this paper includes two aspects:First, monetary policy affects real estate prices, money supply (M2), interest rates impact on real estate prices variable model; real estate prices on the real economy, from consumer and investment. The second aspect of the establishment of real estate prices is the model of the relationship between the total fixed asset investment, total retail sales, financial institutions long-term loans, in the process of dealing with the data using the ADF unit root test, the VAR (variables related model) test method, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, and the establishment of the error correction model, the final conclusion.This article consists of five parts.The first chapter is an introduction, introduces the research background and significance of the problem, the main ideas and structure of this paper.The second chapter is to establish the theoretical framework of this paper, first we introduced the relevant theory of monetary policy, including monetary tools, the intermediate target of monetary policy, interest rates and monetary supply as a tool for empirical research. Then introduce the theory of the real estate market, the main factors of the real estate as the dual attributes of goods and assets, real estate prices, in order to establish the framework of this model. The last part was to introduce the transmission mechanism of monetary policy affecting real estate prices, including interest rates way, way of asset prices, the stock price way and credit channels, and then we discussed how to affect the price of money supply and interest rates; Then we discuss the impact of prices on the real economy, in front of the transmission mechanism on the basis of the impact on consumption and investment through the prices theoretical discussion and also to lay the foundation for the subsequent empirical research.The third chapter is the theory with practical chapters, introduces the course of development of the Chinese monetary policy, as well as real estate development in this process, you can see with the enhanced functions of the central bank’s monetary policy, the impact of real estate prices are also increasing. Finally, we introduced the development status of China’s real estate market, mainly from the housing primary, secondary and tertiary markets to observe, you can find the macro-control real estate prices, especially the severe macro-control policies on rising housing Price has played a very large inhibition.The fourth chapter is the empirical part of this article, through the earlier chapters of theoretical support, we collected monthly data from January2002to December2011of the macroeconomic and real estate markets, through the measurement data processing, including the ADF unit root test, VAR (variable related model) test method, Johansen cointegration test, we established the error correction model and Granger causality test. The empirical results showed during sample period, China’s monetary policy by regulating interest rates, thereby affecting the real estate prices in the conduction process is not very smooth, there are some problems. Consumption effecting the real estate prices of the real economy conduction is significant, while the investment effecting prices on the real economy conduction is not significant, there are certain problems in the transmission mechanism.The fifth chapter is the conclusion chapter, the theoretical and empirical research found that from2001to2011, China’s real estate market transmission mechanism as described is not as theory, or even appear to the opposite conclusion. So this chapter is to discuss monetary policy transmission mechanism arrest and the reasons, including the monetary policy transmission mechanism itself, market participants and real estate regionalization differences, and finally make their own policy recommendations on these issues, including positive promote market-oriented interest rate reform, accelerate the construction of affordable housing and low-rent housing and differentiated monetary and fiscal and monetary policy.The contribution of this paper is:after the2008financial crisis, in order to ensure steady economic growth and prevent the real estate market bubble, the Chinese government frequently adjusted monetary policy and other related industrial policy. In this paper, we use the latest data until the end of2011, and analyze inspection of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and the existence of conduction block.