The Competitive Game Modeling And Empirical Research Of Chinese High-speed Railway And Civil Aviation

Recent years, with the rapid development of China’s high-speed railway business,the high-speed railway’s emergence and development in China bring a new option tothe people in traveling. At the same time, the high-speed railway and the Air Transporthave launched a fierce competition, and with its own advantages to attract aconsiderable number of air passengers, especially in short distance transport, thehigh-speed railway’s performance is very obvious. In March2009, Spring Airlines,the scheduled flight of Zhengzhou to Shanghai was forced to grounded after17months to compete with high-speed rail, after Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway,the scheduled flight of Wuhan to Yichang, Xiangyang and Yichang to Enshi and otherroutes, have announced a stop fly. But China’s high-speed rail situation is notoptimistic, to June2011, the five High-speed railways which have operated in Chinais in heavy losses. In China there is a huge upfront investment in high-speed railway,and the operating costs are continue to rise, more seriously is a major motor carrear-ends accident in July2011. More and more concern from the whole society focuson China’s high-speed rail system and operating system.Civil Aviation, after decades of development as the main mode of transport forlong-distance passenger already has a mature operating system and a relatively stablesource, and the major airlines have take both the strategic adjustment and deploymentfor high-speed railway menacing, for example,to take a price reduction, to reduceboarding times and other measures, and civil aviation compared to other modes oftransportation has a pure run fast, flexible ticket pricing and aircraft can across allnatural barriers and other characteristics, so civil aviation can hold back thehigh-speed railway’s threat effectively. However, with the gradual improvement of themanagement system of high-speed rail, and travlers’ understanding of the high-speedrail is becoming more rational as well as high-speed rail has a unique political advantage, the future of civil aviation is crisis.According to the competition of China’s high-speed railway and civil aviation, atfirst this thesis discusses the main competitive distance range of high-speed railwaysand civil aviation, there is a certain critical distance, under this critical distance,passengers take the total time spent by high-speed rail is less than the total flying timeand the price of high-speed railway is less than airline tickets, at this time, thehigh-speed railway to occupy the absolute dominance of the competition. At the sametime, there is another critical distance, above this critical distance, if selects the civilaviation the total travel time is less than selecting high-speed rail, and high-speedrail fares and the Civil Aviation is not much different, the civil aviation occupies anabsolutely dominant position of the competition, between these two critical distance isthe main competition distance range of the high-speed railways and civil aviation;then the characteristics of the ways to travel will be reasonably quantified, and thencalculate the expatiated pay of travelers to choose different ways to travel, andestablish the model of passenger travel benefits, and then use the LOGIT model toestablish the model of passenger share rate; At last establish the high-speed railwaysand civil aviation competition game model, high-speed railway and civil aviationcustomers’ needs and their tariff rate is in non-linear, and the total profit of high-speedrailway and civil aviation is equal to its total operating revenue and total cost of, at theend we can get the high-speed railway and civil aviation in the final gameequilibrium.Through research, the following findings and conclusions have been finding.The model of traveler’s benefit and passenger-sharing rate model show thathigh-speed rail in the main competition within occupy a dominant position, but theadvantage is not obvious, especially in the transport off-season, the civil aviationticket discounts intensified, the civil aviation take a large number of tourists. Thehigh-speed rail attendance continues to decline, coupled with its high operating costs,its operations are worrying.In the long-range transport market, the competitive relationship betweenhigh-speed railways and civil aviation is a clear duopoly relationship. This thesis establishes a duopoly model of high-speed railways and civil aviation. And thenselects Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail and civil aviation as an example to make anempirical research, in order to seek a game equilibrium price system in China’shigh-speed railway and civil aviation. The final results of the empirical research showthat the civil aviation’s unit freight rate are lower than the current run price, theBeijing-shanghai high-speed rail’s unit freight rate are higher than the current runprice, indicating that the current Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail’s price managementsystem more reasonable, but the current high-speed railway has not yet announced thestandard norm of the price, there is a lager different in different high-speed rail lines’price, for example, there is a big different in the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speedrailway and Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail unit tariff rate. Over time, high-speedrail development is also bound into the predicament.