Study On Risk Assessment Of30MW CIGS Thin Film Solar Cells And Components Engineering Project

The global energy system is rapidly changing to energy supply system which islow carbon, green and efficient. Solar photovoltaic industry is the technologydeveloping trend of the global renewable energy. Solar cells have changed frommonocrystalline cells and polycrystalline silicon cells to the second-generationthin-film batteries. Now the third-generation CIGS thin film solar cells came out,which is environmentally friendly, high photoelectric conversion rate, low cost,suitable for large area, large-scale production and so on.First, this paper analyzes the study background and significance. The researchsituation of the risk assessment is also be analyzed. The research content and methodis set ahead.30MW CIGS thin film solar cells and component engineering project isintroduced to Qingzhou as the leading enterprises. Under the premise of ensuring theenvironment balance and sustainable use of resources, the project can promote thedevelopment of related industry chain which will lead to very high economic andsocial benefits. However, domestic-made thin-film solar cells has low conversion rateand high cost. Solar energy industry is still a new industry with high risk and largeinput costs. Study on risk assessment will promote the development of project.In the part of risk identification, the paper conducted a preliminary identificationof project risks by method of Delphi expert survey. Then, it made financial analysis ofthe project risk using economic benefits analysis, break-even analysis and sensitivityanalysis. The risk is roughly divided by method of Delphi expert survey. Among risksof the project, the economic risk, business risk, technology risk and completion riskare main risks. Next, the paper proceeded risk measurement and sorting to thesub-factors of the four kinds of risk using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). theproduct market risk belongs to significant risk. The raw material market risk,technology advanced risk and human resource allocation risk belong to general risk.Other risk factors belong to no-significant risks.In the part of risk assessment, a risk assessment index system was established.By fuzzy-level risk assessment, among the comprehensive evaluation rule layer, thetechnical risk and completion risk are in the general level, but economic risk andoperating risk are in high level of risk. Among the target layer, the overall level of riskis between the general risk and higher risk which is closer to the higher risks. The conclusion is consistent with the risk profile of the CIGS thin film solar cells andcomponent project. Through the comprehensive evaluation model of fuzzy hierarchyanalysis, it is concluded that the project risk level for general risk, which isacceptable.In the end,the paper pointed out that the project can use risk prevention, risksharing and risk mitigation to reduce risk on the basis of the risk identification, riskassessment and analysis. Then it raised some risk control suggestions such as supportto the supply side, incentive to demand-side, making industry plan, and so on.