| Since1985, China’s exchange rate system has gone through three stages. Fromthe year of1985to1993, official exchange rate and foreign exchange swap pricesco-existed. In1994, China began to implement the monotonous and regulated floatingexchange rate system based on market demand and supply. Since July21sttill now, amanageable floating rate system, which is based on the supply and demand of themarket and refers to a package of currencies, has been adopted by Chinesegovernment. According to data, it is in1993that Sino-US trade surplus first appeared,with the amount of$6.28billion. In2010, the number has reached$181.26billion.Faced with the fast growing of China’s trade surplus, western countries, headed by US,severely interfere China’s exchange rate policy, accusing China of allegedmanipulation of the RMB exchange rate and unfair trade competition. On October11st2011, Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of2011was approved bythe Senate, unilaterally demanding a20-40%appreciation of RMB. This thesismainly focuses on the influence of the exchange rate changes on Sino-US tradebalance. Surported by related theory, the author analyses the empirical research modelof China’s exchange rate balance on the basis of the reform history of RMB exchangerate and the situation of trade balance in our country, and then elaborates hisviewpoint by applying Cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.To sum up, on the basis of theory and empirical research, the author concludesthat the exchange rate of RMB is not the root cause of Sino-US trade surplus, RMB`sappreciation cannot change the trade surplus between China and US. However, it hasalready made an impact on the world’s economic and even political stage. So, Chinashould make efforts to further complete financial market and macro industrialeconomic restructuring based on the principal of initiative, controllability andprogressiveness. Only in this way can China realize a sustainable develepment inforeign trade. |
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