The Research On Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Urban Residential Land Price In Changsha

The Land is both resources and important asset. For the land management department, We must optimize the land utilization structure unceasingly, improve land using efficiency and the development of the land market constantly so as to realize the objective of maintenance and increase of the land assets. The Land market dynamically changes constantly. The price and Time-space distribution of land also changes. Giving the price and Time-space distribution of land to the most important aspects sufficiently accuratelyon-timely and comprehensiv,Demonstrating the changing trends of the land price is necessary for the government to proceed macroscopic guide,but it is an important reference for all the land managemeng department to measure the healthy of the land market and formulate the scientific land management policy.With our country socialist market economy and further deepen of reform, the prices of land play a significant leverage in society and economy life. But because of our land to use system to reform for a short time, as the land price carrier of land market need more development and regulation, therefore the land market as the core elements of land prices formation mechanism is not perfect, and price signals has distortion phenomenon. So it is necessary to increase strength, to improve the influencing factors on land price and the price mechanism research techniques and theoretical level, from the technical level to deepen our country all levels of the management work, to Maximum extent play a land important function on economic and society and so on, to promote our socialist market economy development.The paper use from2001to2010years of Changsha City land price monitoring result and residential land transfer data as the basis, applying the method of mathematical statistics and computer software technique, and analysis of the Changsha residential land price changes feature in time and space domain, at same time analysis of urban of Changsha residential land price influence factors, and establish the model associated with the price correlation of land to quantify, and further forecast the overall level of the future in residential land price. Through analysis and research, trying to seek innovation in Changsha City Land Price spatial-temporal research theory and practice, from a deep comprehend of present stage distribution characteristics in Changsha City land price, as well as the system, scientific grasp of Changsha City land price change rule and influence factor, and provide the science basis, in order to promote Changsha land market construction and strength land price administration.The full text is divided into seven parts. The first chapter introduces the research background、research purpose and significance, domestic and foreign research dynamics as well as the research object and content; the second chapter, introduction research relate concept and basic theory; the third chapter, from natural condition, macroeconomic conditions, regional land market situation to introduce research area profiles; Chapter4, from tow aspects to research the time and space change character for Changsha residential land price, Chapter5, analyzing the factors that influencing on the time variation and spatial variation of residential land price in Changsha, in addition to quantify the correlation of land price impactions. Chapter6, model construction, estimate and analyze the trend of residential land price level in Changsha.Chapter7, summarizing of this investigation, find the problems existing as well as the direction of research in the future.