Mechanism And Empirical Research On The Consumer Credit Influences The Economic Growth In China

With the development of economy, China’s traditional consumption habits and consumption patterns are changing, credit consumption in China has gradually become the new consumer spending habits and consumption patterns. In developed countries, consumption credit’s role is not only as a means to improve people life utility, but also affecting economic growth driving force. The development of China’s consumer credit history is very short, but in the development process of more than ten years, the importance to the national economy and people’s life has shown gradually.The paper first combs the previous research, and then carry out the mechanism analysis about the consumer credit’s effect of consumption demand, he consumer credit’s effect of investment demand and he consumer credit’s effect of net export demand. Through the cointegration analysis and VAR model test we know:the effect of China’s consumer credit on consumption, investment, net exports is significant, among them, the impact of consumer credit on the investment is the biggest, and the impact of consumer credit on the consumption is the smallest on consumption of small. The other, based on the PLS analysis method to establish a model include five variable which are GDP, consumption, investment, export and consumption credit, and try to analysis the trend factor and the Circulation factor, and then we get some results:China’s consumer credit can promote economic growth effectively, and the impact of consumer credit fluctuation on the fluctuation of economic growth is very small. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions about how to increase the effect of consumption demand, how to make better use of the impact of consumer credit on investment demand and import and export demand, how to balance the different effects of the three demands and establish the system of consumer to prevent some likely risks.