The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Housing Prices

The volatility of housing prices easily lead to huge economic risk and social risk, governmentregulation is particularly important in order to maintain stable prices, monetary policy as animportant means of government regulation of prices, the regulation effect has also been concernfrom all walks of life. Under the auspices of Professor Zhang Suodi chaired by the National NaturalScience Foundation project "City real estate dynamics and expected assessment model", we appliedvector autoregressive model, conducted empirical research on the impact of monetary policy onhousing prices, the main work is as follows:(1)Construction index system of the monetary policy affects the housing priceThis article refers to the indicators selected by the Solution to the Abnormal, Liu Yanli andother scholars in the study of the relationship between monetary policy and housing prices,combined with the selected indicators of the Case and Seko and other scholars in the study of therelationship between macroeconomic and housing prices will the introduction of macroeconomicaggregates indicators GDP model makes the model more complete.(2) Empirical analysis of monetary policy on housing pricesIn this paper the use of the2001-2010China’s housing price index and interest rates, moneysupply and other related variables quarterly data to construct a VAR model, and do the stationarytest, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Impulseresponse results show that the negative interest rates on housing prices is a positive standarddeviation would be residential property price index changes, and in a year when the maximum;money supply to a standard of housing price differential impact, in one to changes in the residentialproperty price index in the third quarter is a positive impact in three to seven quarters of negativeimpact, long-term effects gradually weak and disappeared. The variance decomposition resultsshow that the maximum interest rates and money supply, housing prices in one year and one and ahalf. The empirical results show that the impact of monetary policy on housing prices in the shortterm, long-term need to rely on other regulatory means to ensure stable domestic prices.