The Study Of Electricity Market Consumption Simulation Model Based On System Dynamic

The abundant supply of electricity production is so important to the stable development of national economy that the study of electricity market consumption is a basic assignment for electricity department, and it’s certainly of great significance. With the reform of electricity market in-depth and perfections in market economic, the electricity market is growing into a huge complex dynamic system, and the influencing factors are more complex. It studied on the relationship between macro economy social development and electricity consumption, and then built a system dynamics model to simulate electricity consumption in the electricity market system from the perspective of economy.Based on the theory of economic cycles and the periodicity of the electricity consumption, according to the general laws of economics and sociology, deferring to the general principles of electricity consumption index selection, starting from the economic implication of the influencing factors, it considered three levels of indicators,i.e. Chongqing, China and international. It initially selected 57 indicators as alternative indicators to build the indicator library, and then used the gray relational analysis to screen the alternative indicators, quantitatively calculated the degree of association between each factor and electricity consumption, and ultimately selected 19 influencing factors as modeling foundation.On the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis of the obtained influencing factors, it divided the selected indicators into various subsystems using system dynamics method, and formed the structure of the system model, analyzed the feedback loop between the influencing factors and electricity consumption, formed causal diagram, then established and modified the electricity consumption system dynamics model. Based on the model, it carried on further completion of the simulation and analysis, validated the scientificity and rationality of the model, and finally achieved the simulation results of Chongqing medium and long term electricity consumption trend.By constructing a system dynamics model of the electricity market consumption in Chongqing, it dynamically reflected the changes in electricity consumption market to achieve the simulation of the development trend, and studied on regional electricity consumption from the perspective of economic and social development, it not only enriched the forecasting methods of electricity consumption market, but also provided some reference to both the electric utilities and the related departments during the decision-making process. In a word, it has great significance both in theoretical and practical fields.