A Research Of Influence Of Oil Price Fluctuation On Macro-Economy

Oil was the blood of modern industrial production, in the year of1973-1974.First oil crisis in the United States caused a severe impact, this crisis made the U.S.economy shrink1/3, resulting that the inflation rate rise from the previous3.4%to12.2%, causing the unemployment rate rising from4.9%to8.5%.The oil crisis of1980s had a serious impact on the, Britain and other countries, the American GDPnegative growth rates was0.2%, the UK’s GDP negative growth rate was2.4%.Fluctuations in oil prices not only impacted on the country’s macro-economy, but alsohad an impact on the world economy through linkages between countries. In recentyears, the international oil price fluctuations’ effect on the world economy havechanged dynamically, especially after the year of1999, the oil price fluctuations wasnot only no negative impact on the world economy, high oil prices but also had led tothe high growth and low inflation.Currently, economic globalization is developing rapidly, countries around theworld are inter related, and the interdependent relationship is becoming more andmore closely, the operation of the world economy affects each country’s own socialand economic development. If we still confine to a closed economy to study theinfluence of international oil price fluctuations, it may weaken the impact of the oilprice fluctuations on the economy, therefore, studying the impact of the oil pricesfluctuations on the world economic fluctuations is very valuable.In this context, on the basis of summarizing the research status at home andabroad, this paper empirically analyze the impact of the international oil pricefluctuations on the world economic fluctuations, discussing the theory of theinternational oil price fluctuations and the world economy in detail. Finally, theinternational oil price fluctuations on the Chinese macro-economy impact areempirically analyzed. Specific contents are as follows:Choosing the G7which is the represent of the developed countries and theBRICS countries which is on behalf of the developing countries as the researchobjects, choosing the GDP, the inflation rate, the import and export trade and theunemployment rate as the studying indicators, this paper use the quarterly andmonthly data study the impact of oil prices on the price index, the impact of the import and export trade, the unemployment rate and the GDP effect. The resultsshowed that the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on macro-economy isdifferent between the developed countries and the developing countries. And theinfluence degree between countries is also different. Therefore, this paper has finallycarried on the detailed comparative analysis from the aspects of economicenvironment, industrial structure and the future development. This paper also givesthe future development enlightenment of our country through the conclusion.