The Size Of Informal Employment In China Estimation Methods And Demonstration Research In The Framework Of Sna(2008)

In today’s era of economic globalization, the size of informal employment grows generally and gradually, it has replaced regular employment as the main mode of employment. Forms of informal employment are not only flexible, but also include various employment groups. In the actual survey, due to the hidden illegible complicated and intersectant nature of informal employment, it is often not on the scale for accurate statistics. This paper is in the framework of the SNA(2008) to describe related content of informal employment. On the premise of the survey data available currently, we demonstrate the estimate of the size of informal employment, trying to get a relatively accurate result.The first chapter begins by describing the background and significance of informal employment, summarizes research results and introduce the contents of this paper. In second chapter, this paper describe the definitions classifications notes, etc of the informal sector and informal employment in the framework of the SNA (2008). Then we summarize the characteristics of informal employment in China. In third chapter, estimation methods of the size of informal employment have been described. The survey system should be scientific and do their best to collect the data of informal aspects for the overall estimate and structural analysis. In fourth chapter, we describe the size of informal employment based on different estimation methods and compare the advantages and disadvantages of various methods. Then we analyse the applicability of various methods in China and propose a new method based on probability estimates. In fifth chapter, we estimate of the size of informal employment in China in different methods, compare and explain the difference of the results. In sixth chapter, we describe the summary and future research prospects.This paper find the following conclusions:First of all, the informal sector is a subset of the household sector, including unincorporated enterprises. Because the formal sector have been registered, its survey is canonical. Therefore, the informal sector survey is the key point to estimate informal employment, we should perfect the sampling frame, and it is efficient to add informal information module to conventional survey.Secondly, collection of informal employment is self-contained among the estimation methods of size, but difficult to achieve due to the missing data of employment statistics. The margin method excludes informal employment in formal sector. So neither of the methods can be a good estimate of the size of informal employment. We combine the two methods, the result shows that, the size of informal employment derived from10.55million in1978, accounting for8.92%of non-agricultural employment, by2010244.04million, accounting for50.66%of non-agricultural employment. It is evident to see a rising trend of the size of informal employment.Thirdly, MIMIC method is the use of macroeconomic relations in the interaction model to speculate the non-observation of the size of informal employment. This method is influenced by fluctuations in economic indicators. It is doubtful to represent the true size of informal employment, but it provides the path analysis.Fourthly, the advantages of probabilistic analysis is that we are not required to investigate the overall employment. The missing data in the employment survey has little effect on the overall estimate, we need only part of the sample information. Drawn from the analysis of China Health and Nutrition Survey data in2006, we conclude that women agricultural household and low educational level of labor workers have high probability to engage in informal employment, while age and marital status are not significant to the probability. In2006, the size of informal employment is270.72million, accounting for62.9%of non-agricultural employment.