The Study On The Level Of Seismic Risk Based On Catastrophe Modeling

This paper concentrates on the illustration of the principles of constructing a catastrophe model to evaluate the seismic hazard and utilize the Seismology, actuary science and computer technology to realize a catastrophe model.Firstly, this dissertation elaborates the principles to construct a catastrophe model and the technique details to realize it. It then discusses the outputs of catastrophe model and the methods to get them. The methods for incorporating uncertainty into catastrophe modeling are also included in this part.Secondly, the 7844 historical seismic events which have a magnitude bigger than 4 and happened between 780 BC and 2010 AC around the whole country are used as a sample data to construct catastrophe model. Based on the model constructed, catastrophic loss data to a specific area are monitored using computer technique. The monitored loss data are then used to calculate the average annual loss and EP curve.Finally, this article discusses the challenges to develop catastrophe insurances and how the outputs of catastrophe model can be used to price catastrophe risk and risk managing.