| With global climate changing, the frequency of natural disasters around the world is aggravating, which makes prevention and response to catastrophe risk more complicated. As the situation of disaster prevention and mitigation is getting serious, traditional insurance and reinsurance mechanism have not been adapted for the present need of transferring catastrophe risk, because of their limited underwriting capacity and risk transfer mode.In order to overcome such adverse effect, some catastrophe loss immolation company (such as RMS, EQECAT, AIR, etc), international reinsurance company (such as Swiss Re, Munich Re, etc) and insurance regulator (such as ISO, PCS, etc) begin to collect and count data of worldwide nature disasters, establish catastrophe risk database and catastrophe distribution map, and publish some important information about catastrophe risk regularly, like frequency, density and historical property damage. What’s more, they use integrated risk management technique combining analysis of engineering, physics and economics, and construct various catastrophe index, which can simulate the potential losses and their distributed parameters under different conditions and different catastrophe risk events. Catastrophe index have played an active role in establishing catastrophe risk early-warning system, assessing disaster damage, arranging post-disaster reconstruction and so on.Although there is a lot of catastrophe index in practice, there has been still less high-quality research about catastrophe index and related theory.The theoretical study of the catastrophe index lagge behind application development until now, owing to its short study history, complexity and comprehensiveness, In abroad, some literatures discuss loss distribution characteristics of catastrophe and related pricing mechanism about catastrophe derivatives, but as to their contents, most of viewpoints are scattered and stay in the basic level of conceptual interpretation and system contrast. They neither touch the essence of the catastrophe index, nor form a systematic viewpoint, In domestic, literatures are so few that they can hardly meet the need of complex theory research, not to mention they can provide scientific reference and guidance to the practical application. Catastrophe Index study has become the blind spot in the China’s catastrophe risk management research.Therefore, in this paper, considering the reality of China’s Catastrophe Risk Management, we choose the perspective from comprehensive catastrophe risk management as the starting point, which uses an interdisciplinary and comprehensive analytical methods including the combination of qualitative and quantitative analyse, case studies, empirical research,and the contrast analyse between international and domestic research,summarizing the theory and practical experience about catastrophe index involved in the catastrophe risk management fully and systematically, and forming China’s own catastrophe index system. It is hoped that this paper can provide ideas for our catastrophe index in theory and offer references for China’s catastrophe index system in practice.This dissertation analyzes the basic properties of the catastrophe, catastrophe risk and catastrophe index, from conception and definition. What’s more, it relates and analyzes the function and role of the catastrophe index in catastrophe risk management, based on the view of basic theory and practical experience. On this basis, combining with the present situation of catastrophe risk management and catastrophe index in China, it explores the implementation and specific policy of China’s catastrophe index from the macro level, as well as builds the index system of China’s earthquake by using Sichuan’s earthquake data to calculate practically from the micro-level. The study is as follows:The first part is introduction. It describes the background and significance of this paper, and summarizes the ideas, contents, methods on the basis of sorting out the relevant literatures. It also put forward the major innovations and flaw of this study.Chapter I:The relative concept of catastrophe index. This chapter is to start from the basic concept of catastrophe, catastrophe risk and catastrophe index. First, it reviews the definition of catastrophe, from the views of qualitative and quantitative, and makes a special definition of catastrophe. Second, this paper summarizes the theory system of catastrophe risk management, and makes comments on different points of views. Finally, it returns to the catastrophe index, and sums up the relationship of catastrophe index and catastrophe risk management.Chapter Ⅱ:The theoretical basis of catastrophe index’s risk management function. Firstly, from the perspective of disaster, catastrophe index can participate in catastrophe risk identification process, quantifying the factors, decomposing the carriers; Secondly, from the perspective of the insurance, catastrophe index can be used to estimate catastrophe loss distribution, measure and calculate catastrophe premium rates, and forecast the amount of claims; Finally, from the perspective of finance, it also can be used in developing weather index futures, pricing of catastrophe index options and catastrophe bonds.ChapterⅢ:The international experience of catastrophe index’s risk management function. This chapter summarizes the international experience of catastrophe index participating in the catastrophe risk management from a comparative perspective. This chapter classifies various catastrophe indexes and divides them into three categories, catastrophe index putting core on nsk identification, loss assessment and catastrophe derivatives pricing:this chapter also summarizes the laws of international catastrophe index operation, and shows positive and negative aspects about the experience of international catastrophe index.Chapter Ⅳ:The status of the catastrophe risk management and catastrophe index in China—Based on history and current comparative analysis. Firstly, this chapter summarizes the major catastrophic risk and its distribution in China from history data. Secondly, it expound the emergence and development of Chinese catastrophe risk management systems, followed by its structure, operation mode available and main problems; At last, starting with the characteristics of traditional natural disaster index, it discusses the main reason for China catastrophe index missing, and point out the potential impact of this situation.Chapter Ⅴ:Implementation plan and construction policy about catastrophe index in Chinaa—Based on integrated catastrophe risk management perspective. Although there is no catastrophe index in our catastrophe risk management systems, it does not mean it’s no possible and no necessary to build a catastrophe index system with Chinese characteristics. So this chapter proposed implementation plan and construction policy for constructing catastrophe index in China from the overall framework and also mention the terms of the plait process, management framework and operation mechanism.Chapter Ⅵ:Construction and pilot of earthquake catastrophe index in China. This chapter shows the innovative process of constructing Chinese first earthquake composite index; First, this chapter offers general idea of constructing earthquake index:Second, it computes the earthquake emergency capability index, earthquake damage capacity index, property damage degree index, and earthquake recovery capacity index to construct earthquake catastrophe index system. Third, it also makes demonstration and description of the ralationship of earthquake index system.Chapter Ⅶ:The practical application of earthquake index in Sichuan province. Based on the earthquake data in Sichuan province, this chapter conducts an actual measurement on earthquake index, in order to check up the scientificalness of the earthquake index system established in the last chapter. The results show that nearly all the indexes meet the expected requirements except earthquake recovery capability indicators.In the end, around the application and promotion of this index, necessary instructions and suggestions are offered.ChapterⅦ:conclusions and enlightenment. This chapter is a summary and supplemental of the whole paper. It discusses the main conclusion and the key point in this study, and mentions the inadequate and prospects for further research.Through the above analysis and exploration, this dissertation made the following innovations during the process of the catastrophe index construction and application research:1. As current research about catastrophe risk management develops slowly, there are many blind spots and inadequacies. Starting from the basic properties, this paper makes a reasonable argument about the mutual relationship between catastrophe risk management and catastrophe index, as well as creatively answers many basic propositionst, innovative poses catastrophe index’s risk management function. It can initiate a new field in catastrophe risk management.2. This dissertation breaks the habit of traditional dispersion research ideas; precede from the integrating perspective of comprehensive catastrophe risk management systems. During this study, it applies various research theory and tools creatively, exercise interdisciplinary analysis method, clarify and summarize the theory of catastrophe index participating in catastrophe risk management from disaster, insurance and finance theory. It also makes classification and comparison between international catastrophe indexes and summarizes their operation disciplines. It can profound theory perspective of catastrophe index analysis and make up for the lack of theory study in domestic catastrophe index area.3. Based on the overall analysis about current Chinese catastrophe risk management and catastrophe index, this paper abandon the empty slogan-thinking habit of traditional catastrophe risk management study, break through narrow research paradigm, single research angle, backward research methods, and overcome the difficulty of lacking research literature, it proceeds from China’s actual conditions, constructs Chinese first catastrophe index initially. At the same time, it introduces the procedure process, management system and operation mechanism in detail, and develops the catastrophe risk management theory.4. To demonstrate the scientificalness and rationality of the catastrophe index practical application, this paper constructs a complete set of earthquake index system, applies analytic hierarchy process and factor swap inspection creatively, do empirical research and standardized test on Sichuan province earthquake data. This can be callde the first example on the level of index system’s integrity and scientificalness. And it not only has prevalent meaning of guidance to the father similar research, but also has important reference value to the following actual catastrophe index establishment.However, the construction and application of the indicator system for the catastrophe index is very challenging research projects at home and abroad. Directly reference material and literature, practice experience and official guidance and regulations are all rare. As a new study it may be hard to avoid faults. Practice may appear spontaneous, and the scientificalness and availability of relevant conclusion may also been challenged. No doubt there are some limits and omissions in this paper and a long, deeply and continued study is needed to make this catastrophe theory of index deeper and more perfect. |
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