A Research Of Bulk Carries Price Based On ECM

Rencently years, the bulk carrier market have been developed so fast that it hastaken the leder place of world new building ship market, and more and more shipowners and investors expecially in china focus their attention on the bulk carrier.However, as more and more new ships having been develived and other relatedmarket changing, the bulk carrier market will face a lot of uncertain. So, it means a lotto have a research on the price of new building ship and secondhand ship.Firstly, this paper analyzes the characteristics of international bulk carrierindustry, present situation and the trend of the market. On the basis that analyze theinternational bulk carriers market and the influencing factor of bulk carriers’ newbuilding price and secondhand price, this author use the Cointegration Theory andestablish error correction model (ECM) to analyze the price of bulk carriers.Secondly, the paper analyze the price trend of four kinds of bulk carriesincluding Handy, Handymax, Pananmax and Capsize and get the elastic coefficientfor long term and short term. Although the influencing factors are different in the fourbulk carriers market, but we can reach a conclusion that the new building price isdrove by cost and the second hand price is drove by the market.At last, the paper did a diagnostic check and predictive for the CointegrationTheory and establish error correction model. After reach the conclusion that the modelis right, the author a investment tool for investors and advices on the risk control.