Production Risk Zoning And Premium Rates Calculation For Fruit Industry In Xinjiang

The special geographical climate made high quality and characteristic fruit product inXinjiang. The "organic walnut" in Hetian,"Olympic apple" in Akesu,"Munage green grape”and Korla pear are famous at home and abroad. However, Xinjiang is also China’s naturaldisaster-prone region. Ecological environment is fragile. Xinjiang has many kinds of highfrequency natural disaster that lead to great harm. Every year cold, wind, dust storms, hail,frost and other disasters caused heavy losses, affect the stable development of forestry andfruit industry.In order to reduce or even eliminate the negative effect of forest fruit industrycaused by natural risk and make fruit production stably, in2010April, the autonomous regionhas chosen Akesu as a experimental city city started industry of characteristic forest fruitinsurance pilot work. Carrying out of fruit insurance can not only transfer the farmers’ risk ofreduction of output and can help farmers achieve disaster prevention and loss prevention,relieve the fear of disturbance in the rear of farmers, help increase fruit grower income andrealize Xinjiang span type develops.However, one of the key works of fruit insurance is to scientifically and reasonablydetermine the different fruit producing areas of the insurance premium rate. Risk premiumbased on the regional crop insurance satisfy the consistency principle, which can effectivelyavoid the adverse selection and moral risk, save the cost of transaction, and can scatter thesystemic risk in different regions. This paper will combine with the special situation ofXinjiang fruit production on the basis of previous studies. Be to use clustering analysis onXinjiang fruit producing areas of production risk evaluation, measure regional level of risk,and based on this, using the parameter method (normal distribution, Beta distribution, threeparameters of the Weibull distribution, Logitic distribution, four parameters Burr distribution,Lognormal distribution, three parameters of the Gamma distribution, two parameters of theRayleigh distribution in different regions of Xinjiang province) on fitting six kinds of mainfruit products yield distributions, and select the most suitable for fitting of distributionfunction of each district city fruit pure premium rate. In order to solve the Xinjiang policy offruit industry insurance industry technical obstacles, provides theory basis for insurancecompany to design a full range, reasonable price of forest fruit industry insurance policy; in addition, hoping for provide some reference for the government to support the developmentinsurance of fruit industry.