Production Risk Partition And Premium Rates Calculation For Planting Industry In Xinjiang

Thanks to its special geological and climate environment,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is able to enjoy the special and high-quality agricultural products.The cotton from all divisions of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(XPCC)and the wheat grown in Toksun of Southern Xinjiang have gained great popularity across the country,and even worldwide.Unfortunately,Xinjiang also tops among the regions that suffer from the most natural disasters,especially the Uygur Autonomous Region.As one of the few mostly-affected regions by natural disasters in China,various catastrophes often inflict heavy losses,which also contribute to its weak biological environment and brittle agriculture foundation,greatly affect the quantity and quality of its agriculture industry.In 2007,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region officially launched its special agricultural insurance pilots project by learning from international peers,in order to minimize the effects on agriculture imposed by natural risks in accordance with the local conditions.The implementation of the agricultural insurance is aimed at avoiding the natural risks,increase farmers' incomes through governmental subsidies,so that Xinjiang,as an important province of agriculture,could realize the heap-forward development.Based on the principle of uniformity of rates and risks,the scientific implementation of risk classifications and rate estimations marks a breakthrough in both cultivation insurance and policy-based agriculture insurance,which can not only slash the operating pressure of insurance companies,but also remit the premium burdens according to farmers' economic situations and regional risk levels,while striking down the systematic risks in different areas.Meanwhile,the government can give subsidies according to the actual situations,lessening the occurrence of mortal risks and adverse options,both of which may increase farmers' incomes.Therefore,in this paper,three representative crops,namely the maize,wheat and cotton,based on the current researches and the latest development situations of Xinjiang's agriculture insurance,are selected to calculate the risks within the manufacturing areas of all counties in Xinjiang and the divisions of the XPCC.The cluster analysis method is applied to conduct the manufacturing risk estimations and divisions of manufacturing areas for each kind of crop.Finally,on this basis,the parameter methods(normal distribution,gamma distribution,minimal extreme value distribution,maximal extreme value distribution,logarithmic normal distribution,logical distribution,three-parameter logical distribution,and three-parameter Weibull distribution)are applied to fit the yield per unit in various manufacturing areas for each crop.The optimum fitting distribution is selected to specify the relative parameters and probability densities,which can be used to obtain the expected loss,which is the pure premium rate for insurance.This research may facilitate the improvement of rate measurement theory for policy-based agriculture insurance,providing references for scholars for comparing the measurement rates calculated by different methods in the future.Meanwhile,it may also provide references to manufacturing layouts for the agricultural industry in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,as well as corresponding basis for the insurance companies' policy design and rate setting.Finally,some latest policy suggestions may be proposed to agricultural insurance in Xinjiang on the basis of newly-issued crop options and corresponding financial instruments.