The Impact To The Real Estate Market Made By The Second-Handed Housing, Based On The System Dynamics And A Case Study Of Xi’an

As we all know, the real estate industry of China has developed in a rather highspeed since the reform and opening to the outside world. The extent of real estateinvestment is expending, and the commercialization of estate continuously increases.However, as the excessive hot of the real estate industry, the growth rate of the price ofcommercial house is far more than the growth rate of the income levels of buyers, whichleads to the majority of lower-middle class cannot afford to commercial houses and therigid demand of commercial houses cannot be met. At the same time, some housepurchasers speculate in real estate, making negative impact to the market health anddisrupting the market order. Then, in order to control the over-high house price, theover-fast growth rate and making a standard to the market behavior, the governmentenacted a series of macro-control policies aiming to the real estate market. Besides ofthe macro-control policies, the government also encouraged to improve thedevelopment of second-handed housing market by some preferential polices ontransaction taxes, decreasing of the standard both in first payment and interest rate, thecombination of accumulation fund and mortgage loans. After that, the roles ofsecond-handed housing market playing emerged gradually. The second-handed housingmarket works as a tank to adjust the relationship of supply and demand of new houses,which would refrain the high speed of the growth of housing price.This paper, based on the analysis of second-handed housing market transactionsand the interaction mechanism between the macro-control policies on second-handedhousing and the primary market of real estate, established a simulation model of theimpact to the developing motion of real estate market making by the second-handedhouses, with the theoretical principle of the system dynamics principles and the use of Vensim PLE Plus32. This paper made a simulation prediction of the developing trend ofreal estate market from2011to2020, based on the real estate data from2002to2010inXi’an. Then, through the changes of macro polices to the rate of first payment, the loanperiod, the preferential interest rates of loan and transactions taxes of second-handedhousing, this paper, simulating the impact made by second-handed housing market tothe real estate market, made recommendations to the policies of controlling andimproving the development of second-handed housing market. It realized a linkagebetween the second-handed housing market and the primary market of real estate, whichcould control the primary market in a more effective way.