Empirical Research On The Influences Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes To The Main Transmission Channels Of Technology Spillover

Whether RMB exchange rate changes has effect on the technology spillover inChina or not; through what channels; the effect is positive or negative, to what degree；All has become the focus of the study of scholars both at home and abroad.First of all, the paper do the classification comb about the research of domestic andforeign scholars, how RMB exchange rate changes influence FDI inflows and importand export trade, and found that, whether the relationship is between exchange rate andFDI, import and export trade or not, if present, what relationship between them, becauseof the different stages and entry point of the study, their conclusion is different either.Secondly, this paper do some theoretical analysis, introduced and summarized fivechannels of the exchange rate changes affect FDI flows: emonstration and competitioneffect of the exchange rate changes, wealth effect,relative production cost effect,expected effect and risk effect;three important theory of exchange rate changes’influence on the import and export trade:elastic analysis theory (Marshall-lernerconditions), J curve effect and absorbing analysis theory.Thirdly,based on the analysis of theory,this paper collected the data from1980to2010,using the linear model and use ADF unit root test, cointegration test and grangercausality test, and other modern econometric methods and analyzing respectively howRMB exchange rate impact on the main channels of technological spillover in the viewof FDI and import and export trade.The empirical results of cointegration analysis andgranger causality test show that, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate promotes theinflows of overall FDI but restrains import and export trade worsening trade balance, inother words, devaluation even if improve balance of the trade but also has the delayproblem, inhibiting the inflow of FDI.Finally, this paper on the basis of summarizing the theory and empirical analysis,puting forward the corresponding countermeasures about how to improve thetechnological spillover channels in order to better cope with the RMB exchange ratechanges which may bring technology progress of the negative effect in China from thetwo aspects of FDI and import and export trade.