An Empirical Study Of The Exchange Rate Change Which Affects The Xinjiang Import-export Trade

From the international community against the pressure of RMB appreciation, June 19,2010 spokesman said the central bank will further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, strengthen the RMB exchange rate flexibility. Insist on focusing on the RMB exchange rate based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. July 15, the central bank governor Hu Lian published an article that should continue to adhere to a managed floating exchange rate system, which is China's established policy, and promoting structural adjustment and optimal allocation of resources to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation, strengthen the exchange rate regime flexibility.Whether changes in the exchange rate will continue to import and export trade in Xinjiang have an impact, influence how? In this paper,1985-2010 RMB real effective exchange rate, the annual import and export trade of Xinjiang Eviews software, data and corresponding empirical research. First, the definition of the relevant concepts and theories introduced. Second, the impact of exchange rate changes on import and export trade of the four channels are described and analyzed. Again, in the brief overview of import and export of Xinjiang, the evolution of exchange rate regime and exchange rate changes in influencing factors based on the analysis of exchange rate changes on import and export trade volume of Xinjiang and trade structure. Fourth, the use of 1985-2010 RMB real effective exchange rate, the annual import and export trade of Xinjiang Eviews software, data and empirical analysis of the real effective exchange rate changes on import and export trade of Xinjiang, trade delays and trade impact of structural adjustment. Finally, describes the import and export trade of RMB appreciation on the Effect of Xinjiang, analysis, and the response to further appreciation of the relevant countermeasures.The article concludes that are as follows:1. Through the annual data of stationarity test, the RMB actual and effective exchange rate, xinjiang import and export value are second single whole sequence, cointegration test after the error correction model shows:the export of short-term fluctuations adjust to long-term equilibrium cycle of about 2 years, import the short-term volatility is adjusted to long-term equilibrium cycle for about 4 years.2. Xinjiang export with RMB exchange rate fluctuation is practical and effective reverse changes with foreign relations, positively to the relationship between GDP, Xinjiang import and RMB actual and effective exchange rate and xinjiang GDP maturation to relationship.3. RMB appreciation export produced time lag effect, the influence of appreciation to export the third year produced the role; The actual and effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation to import produces the time lag effect, the influence of appreciation to import in the following year produced the role.4. Looked from the exchange rate change to the primary product import and export same year's influence that the Renminbi revaluation to imports the primary product the influence to be big, but to the export primary product's influence is not very big; Looked from the exchange rate change to primary product's lagging effect, the exchange rate change produces the import lagging effect is bigger than the export lagging effect, the Renminbi revaluation is advantageous to the Xinjiang primary product import, does not favor the Xinjiang primary product the export.5. Looked from the exchange rate change to the industrial finished products import and export same year's influence that the Renminbi revaluation is big to the export industrial finished products'influence, but to imports the industrial finished products the influence is not very big; Looked from the exchange rate change to industrial finished products' lagging effect, the exchange rate change produces the export lagging effect is bigger than the import lagging effect, the Renminbi revaluation does not favor the Xinjiang industrial finished products the export, is advantageous in the Xinjiang industrial finished products import.