Evaluating The Sustainable Development Of Power Source Based On Projection Pursuit Method

China’s economy is experiencing a fast development period, the GDP increases fast. Meanwhile, power consumption and power installed capacity are increasing rapidly. In order to make reasonable adjustment policy of power structure, it’s necessary to find out rules of power consumption in development pattern for economy, and the factors that affect power structure.First, Based on the theory of sustainable development, the paper introduce the sustainable development of energy and power structure, analyse the relationships between energy with socio-economic and ecological. Factors which affect the power source are divided into four categories, which are power-economic, environmental, security of electricity production and technology cost.Second, to find out the factors that affect power source. From the resource, economic, environment, technological, social, safety and cost aspects,39indicators affecting the power source are selected. By designing questionnaires and surveying experts, find out all the factors relationship, a reachability matrix is obtained. Using interpretative structural model, the structural model of power source is builded. Then all the factors can be devided into first factor, process factor and final factor.Then, it is analyzed that how the first factor affect the final factor in the power source system. Based on meet the electricity demand of economic development, it is forecast the power supply, the total installed capacity of power and its proportion of each power in2015. Results show that the first factors play a key role in the power source system. Meanwhile, the first factor contributes to the final factor, and the final factor contributes to the first factor as well.Finally, the paper uses projection pursuit method to evaluate the sustainability of the power source. The optimum projection direction and comprehensive projection eigenvalue are calculated by MATLAB. Then the sustainable level of power is determined. It’s proved that the sustainable level trends a good development momentum during2001-2009. In additon, according to the best projection direction, it can make out the weight coefficient that each indicator affecting on the sunstainability of power source, which has an important reference value for the future sustainable evaluation of power source structure.