The Fitness Of The Loess Plateau Area Of Crops To Climate Change

The problem of adaptation to climate change has been stirred up widespread concerns of the international communities and organizations. In the context, lots of countries and research organizations launched many plans to explore and study the adaptation to climate change which were very beneficial and helpful to the human societies. In this paper, by analyzing the precipitation, average temperature, sunshine hours meteorological data, which was derived from the fifty-eight meteorological stations in Loess Plateau regions from1959to2011and use the methods of Mann-Kendall mutational test, Geospatial analysis, Multiple linear regression and other mathematical statistical method, the area climate change characteristic and crops climate change adaptation degree variations of each crops growing periods were studied and modeled. The main conclusions were as follows:(1) Over the year from1960to2010, the annual average temperature in Loess Plateau was8.58℃, rising at the rate of0.32℃·10y-1, and also occurred warming-up tendency mutation at the year of1992; the annual average temperature of the northwest was higher than that of the southeast area; its tendency rate of south was lower than north area; warming-up tendency mutational time of northwest was earlier than southeast area. Annual extremely high temperature rising at the rate of0.26℃·10y-1and decreased symmetrically from northwest to southeast; its warming-up mutational time was occurred in1998; and also warming-up mutational tendency rate of northwest was earlier than that of southeast area. The annual extremely low temperature was rising at the rate of0.37℃·10y-1and the northwest was lower than southeast area; its warming-up tendency rate mutational time at the year of1983; the warming-up tendency rate of north was higher than that of the south area; the mutational time was became earlier by the Longitude directions from west to east area.(2) The annual precipitation in Loess Plateau was430mm over the last51years and decreased by-9.42mm-10y-1, and also occurred decreased mutational tendency at the year of1993; the annual precipitation of northwest was lower than that of southeast area; the precipitation mutational was earlier at north than south area; the precipitation climate tendency rate of northwest was higher than that of southeast area. The annual sunshine hours in Loess Plateau was2576.88h over the last51years and decreased by -41.98h·10y-1, and also occurred decreased mutational tendency at the year of1982which was earlier at the center than other area; the annual sunshine hours of northwest was higher than that of southeast area; its climate tendency of northeast was lower than that of southwest area.(3) The winter wheat yearly temperature adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was87.1%which was reached the strong adaptation level and decreased by-0.0002%·10y-1; the growing period of winter wheat was maximum within tasseling-flowering, grouting-mature period and minimum in seeding-tillering, greening-stem pushing period. The spring wheat yearly temperature adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was79.4%which was reached the strong adaptation level and increased by0.010%·10y-1; the growing period of spring wheat was maximum in stem pushing-tasseling, tasseling-flowering, grouting-maturing period and minimum in seeding-sprouting period, which was only reached the moderate adaptation degree level. The area of less than70%was located at northeast and the most west, great than90%was located at Fen-Wei plain, Luoyang and at lower elevations area; the other area was strong adaptation level.(4) The winter wheat yearly precipitation adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was67.2%which was reached the moderate adaptation level and decreased by-0.0106%·10y-1; the growing period of winter wheat was reached at the strong adaptation level, except the greening-stem pushing period was at the weak adaptation level. The spring wheat yearly precipitation adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was48.0%which was reached the moderate adaptation level and the tendency was not obviously; the growing period of spring wheat was reached at the strong adaptation level, except the grouting-maturing period; the precipitation adaption degree of northwest was lower than that of southeast area; the area of less than30%(reached at the weak adaptation degree),was located at northeast, great than70%was located at southeast area which was winter wheat planting area, the other area was moderate adaptation level.(5) The winter wheat annual sunshine hour adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was76.2%which was reached the strong adaptation level and decreased by-0.0072%·10y-1; the growing period of winter wheat was reached at the strong adaptation level, which was all increased except the greening-stem pushing period was decreased. The spring wheat yearly sunshine hour adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was85.3%which was reached the strong adaptation level and decreased by-0.003%·10y-1; the growing period of spring wheat was reached at the strong adaptation level which was all decreased except the sprouting-stem pushing period was increased. The sunshine hour adaption degree of north was lower than that of south area; the area of great than90%which reached at the strongest adaptation degree was located at north, less than70%which was reached at the moderate adaptation degree level which was located at the most south, the other area was strong adaptation level.(6)The winter wheat yearly comprehensive adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was76.2%which was reached the strong adaptation level and decreased by-0.006%·10y-1; the growing period of winter wheat was reached at the strong adaptation level, except the greening-stem pushing period was moderate. The spring wheat yearly comprehensive adaptation degree in Loess Plateau was70.9%which was reached the strong adaptation level and increased by0.002%·10y-1; the growing period of spring wheat was maximum within grouting-maturing which was reached at the strong adaptation level, the seeding-sprouting period was reached at the moderate adaptation degree level. The comprehensive adaption degree of northwest was lower than that of southeast area; the area of less than70%which reached at the moderate adaptation degree was located at most northwest, other area was great than70%which was reached at the strong adaptation degree level. The spatial correlation of comprehensive adaptation degree with precipitation adaptation was higher than temperature adaptation degree, but was miner correlation with sunshine hour adaptation degree. Its linear tendency of west, northwest and northeast was increased, but decreased at south and southeast area. Obviously, the variation tendency of comprehensive adaptation degree of spring wheat planting area was more beneficial than southern winter wheat plant area which became more harmful than ever before.