Studies On Climate Change Adaptation Technology System Of Wheat Production In Ethiopia

Globally climate change is a major threat to agriculture production,mostly characterized by temperature rising,and change in rainfall amount,intensity,and distribution and poses specially a severe threat to food security in developing countries.Wheat production in Ethiopia is mainly rainfed,characterized by dry spells,shortness of rainy seasons,early-onset,and cessation.In Ethiopia,wheat productivity is low and the primary driver for the low productivity is attributed to climate change.Wheat yield dropped by 28%during the 1990s due to rainfall variability and this reduction negatively impacts the country’s food security.We used Mann-Kendall test to analyse the climate trend for the one of the major wheat producing area in Ethiopia(Kulumsa)for period of 1981–2015.This study adopted the DSSAT CERES-wheat model and the ensemble mean of four Global Climate Models(GCMs)namely CSIRO-Mk3.6.0,Had GEM2-ES,MIROC5 and MRI-CGCM3 to quantify risks of climate change on wheat production.It is revealed from the climate scenario analysis that maximum temperature will increase by 3.6 ~oC and 4.4 ~oC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively for mid-century(2036-2065)and increase by 4.4 ~oC and 5.5 ~oC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively for late-century(2066-2095)compared with baseline period(1981–2015)and minimum temperature will rise by 2.1 ~oC and 2.6 ~oC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively during mid-century and increase by 2.8 ~oC and 3.9~oC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively during late-century.Growing season precipitation decreases under all climate scenarios and future period except in July.Our analysis for impacts of climate change on wheat production indicated that grain yield will be decreased up to 5%and 4%for Dandaa and Digelu cultivars respectively for early sowing date during future period except in the 2080s under RCP8.5.For growth stages of wheat,date to anthesis will be reduced up to 20 days for Dandaa cultivar and up to 14 days for Digelu and Kakaba cultivars during late-century under RCP 8.5,and date to maturity will be reduced up to 32,20 and 27 days during late-century under RCP 8.5 for Dandaa,Digelu and Kakaba cultivars respectively.Technical improvement plays an important role in adapting to climate change,which could help to increase the crop yield with enhancing the crop’s biological resistance.In this study,we designed two pathways to develop the adaptation technology system(ATS).One pathway is to integrate the indigenous’grassroots’technologies according to the climate risks for wheat production in Ethiopia,another pathway is the technology transfer to take the reference of the wheat production technologies in Southwest China(SWC)where is believed the climate similarity of wheat cultivation as in Ethiopia.Application of improved variety,adjusting sowing date,fertilizer and irrigation were identified as effective adaptation technologies for the study area.Two new cultivars(Dandaa and Kakaba)with reference to an old cultivar(Digelu)were considered for mid-century and late-century under RCP 4.5and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios.The results showed that,Dandaa cultivar demonstrates a better adaptation potential at late sowing with a yield increase of about 140 kg/ha to 148 kg/ha for the mid and late century respectively under RCP4.5.However,under RCP8.5,Kakaba demonstrates higher adaptation potential with a yield gain for early sowing of up to 142 kg/ha and 170 kg/ha during the mid and late century respectively.Using nitrogen fertilizer wheat yield increase up to 6%for Dandaa and Kakaba varieties,and yield could increase up to 4%for Digelu variety during future period compared to the yield in the baseline.With irrigation application under climate scenarios wheat yield could be increased by 15%,11%and 13%for Dandaa,Digelu and Kakaba varieties respectively during mid-century and yield would increase by 10%,7%and 8%for Dandaa,Digelu and Kakaba varieties respectively during late-century compared with baseline.Our assessment on the adaptation technologies applied in SWC for wheat production indicated that improved varieties,zero tillage,fertilizer,early warning system and intercropping are the top 5 most popular and efficient adaptation measures.These technologies resulted in increasing yield,improving the resistance of wheat to drought and disease,enhancing farmers’welfare,etc.From the ATS pathway,through the combination of innovative technologies,we put forward a package of technologies to solve drought,flood,water use efficiency and pests.Therefore,the combination of improved varieties(for example,if greenhouse gas emissions are at least reduced to the average situation,sowing Dandaa varieties late and Kakaba varieties early if emissions are high),irrigation,covering soil,crop rotation,nitrogen fertilizer,plastic film,insurance,early warning and extension personnel can solve the adverse effects of drought and high temperature stress.The combination of improved varieties,nitrogen fertilizer,high bed planting technology,underground drainage,insurance,early warning and extension personnel can help to cope with water and soil erosion and flood.Improving variety,fertilizer,crop rotation and intercropping combination can help to improve the effect of water deficit on crops.Improved varieties,intercropping,nitrogen fertilizer,integrated pest management(IPM),fungicides,crop rotation,no-tillage combination,etc.are all helpful to solve the pest problemThe main highlights of this study are summarized as follows:1.The Mann-Kendall test analysis revealed that seasonal and annual rainfall shows decreasing trend from 1981 to 2015,while temperature shows increasing trend during this period.Temperature is likely to increase over Ethiopia with maximum temperature increase up to 5.5~oC and minimum temperature increase up to 3.9 ~oC in late-century under RCP 8.5.However,decrease in precipitation is expected throughout the growing season except on July during mid-century and late-century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.2.For early sowing dates,yield decreased up to 5%and 4%for Dandaa and Digelu cultivars, respectively,for the future period,except in the 2080s,of RCP 8.5 due to water shortages during flowering and grain-filling stages as a result of drought,since Dandaa and Digelu are late-maturing varieties.3.Adoption of system of wheat intensification,improved varieties,irrigation,mulching, intercropping,crop rotation,fertilizer,plastic sheeting,insurance,and early warning system will help to respond to the impacts of drought on wheat production.