China's Manufacturing Sector Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions Analysis

Manufacturing accounts for a great proportion of economic growth as well as energy consumption and carbon emission in China. Manufacturing consumes over two thirds of the energy consumption of the secondary industry and over one third of the total national energy consumption. So it is necessary to study the characteristics of the carbon emission of the manufacturing, in order to grasp the whole picture of national carbon emission. The article aims to measure the carbon emission level of the manufacturing as a whole as well as that of29sub industries in the last ten years. Meanwhile, it assesses the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission increase. Moreover, it identifies key industries and makes classification and analysis on the industries. The ultimate purpose is to shed some light on carbon reduction policy formulation. The methodologies adopted in this study include the carbon emission calculation method provided by IPCC, the LMDI and the DPSIR theoretic model provided by OECD.The result of calculation and analysis shows that the distribution of carbon emission in sub industries displays The80/20Rule, which means the carbon emission of black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical materials and chemical products manufacturing, non metallic mineral products industry, petroleum processing coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, textile industry accounts for about80%of the carbon emission of manufacturing. The scale effect is the chief positive factor while the energy intensity is the main negative factor to carbon emission increase. The latter could offset about50%of the effect of the former. Among the high carbon intensity industries, chemical fiber industry and petroleum processing coking and nuclear fuel processing industry display high unhook level while black metal smelting and rolling processing industry and nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry display low unhook level. The high unhook level of the former two industries could be attributed to the industry transfer of the developed countries. Thus, such carbon reduction is not sustainable. The technique of metal smelting and rolling processing industry in China is advanced. So it is unlikely for these industries to achieve great carbon emission reduction with the product structure unchanged. Therefore, besides focusing on key industries, we should adjust the structure of the industries and upgrade the products of manufacturing in order to achieve carbon emission unhook and carbon emission intensity reduction.