Enso Events For Climate Impact Research In China Since 1950

Through to collect and statistics the average annual precipitation and the annual temperature, El Nino and La Nina events and meteorological datas of a total of735stations about31provincial administrative units (except Taiwan province, Hong Kong and Macao) from1950-2011, according to our natural and administrative districts, mathematical statistics and measurement geography and other methods, this article has researched the relashionship between the rainfall characteristics, temperature change characteristics and the precipitation of the temperature relevancy in different areas across the country since195O.And also has analyzed the relationship between the changes in rainfall and temperature in the different area since1950and the ENSO events, discussed the effects of ENSO events on the climate change in different areas of China. And then,through GIS related methods,this article has zoninged the influences of strong ENSO events on the differences in climate.And using "kriging interpolation method" technology means, can reflects the influences of strong on the cliamate since1950more intuitive;can evaluation and prediction the relationship between ENSO events and climate change of our country for better.Finally,reached the following conclusion:(1) Since1950, the three peaks of El Nino events are1982-1983, around1997and2009respectively, La Nina events peak for1954-1955, round2000and2007. The cycle of ENSO events with different strength is about2-7years, and there exists a significant difference on the strength. The trends of the rainfall change in Northeast, north, east, central and northwest of China is consistent, and have shown precipitation slant generally more trend in the20century-60s, rainfall tends to be normal in the1970s to the1990s, and slant generally less from1990s to now. In south and southwest,this two areas have shown too few precipitation of the trend in the20century-60s, and tended to normal characteristics from the1970s to the present day.(2) In northeast, north, east, south, central, Northwest and Southwest of China, the trends of annual average temperature changing in the seven regionals is consistent, show a lower in the average from1950to1990, in the above average1990years later, higher generally tendency from the1950s to the present day, especially in the late1990s has the temperature increase trend is more obvious. From these we can see, more than60years of time in statistical, most regions of China’s climate change trend from the cold wet-normal (slant cold)-warm dry, south China and southwestern changes in no other obviously.(3) Since1950, El Nino and La Nina events on the seven different area with an average annual rainfall of the influence in different performance and the occurrence probability of close to influence, have shown El Nino events years with an average annual rainfall is obviously low probability of high, La Nina events to average annual rainfall in the influence of El Nino events without significant, El Nino events of the year next annual precipitation increase or a certain year high rainfall; And for the influence of annual precipitation differences, the strongest influence of north China, to the northwest of influence is stronger, the influence of the region of east China is center, in northeast China, central China and the influence of the south China area is weak, the influence of the southwest is pianissimo.(4) Since1950, El Nino or La Nina events on the seven different area annual temperature of the influence in different performance and the occurrence probability of close to influence, El Nino events years probability of annual average temperature increased obviously high, La Nina event years the probability of annual average temperature decrease is high, but is weaker then El Nino events. Annual average temperature in the next year of the El Nino events has certain rise or annual average temperature is higher year; And for annual average temperature increase and decrease the impact a significant difference in north China and northeast of the strongest influence, to the northwest of the strong influence of central China and east area of effect is weak, the southwest and the influence of the south China area most weak.(5) The influence of Strong El Nino events on the precipitation in north and northwest China is strongest, main performance is significantly less rainfall, rainfall increased area is not apparent, and presents the characteristics of the scattered distribution. Strong La Nina event on all over the country strong El Nino precipitation effect is not obvious events, for the performance of the precipitation reduce is not apparent, and every time sphere of influence there are some differences, performance for the weakest and the strongest influence the area is not apparent, and present scattered distribution. Strong El Nino events in north China and in the east of northwest China with an average annual temperature rise high most effect, cooling area is not apparent, and presents the characteristics of the distribution of the scattered. Strong La Nina events all over the country to the annual average temperature effect significantly, mainly with cooling is given priority to, the scope of the cooling is also great, show that strong La Nina event on the influence of the temperature to significantly greater than the effect of rainfall. ENSO event conversion years disasters, often cause major natural disaster, the need to be monitoring and prevention work.