The Impact Of Climate Change On Economic Crop Phenological In Shaanxi Province, China

The paper, based on month average temperature and month precipitation of thirty-three meteorological stations in Shaanxi province, Using the methods of trend analysis, coefficient of variation, Mann-Kendall testing, wavelet analysis, geostatistical analysis (through ArcGIS for data interpolation), R/S method and Julian date conversion, under the background of global climate warming, according to the temporal and spatial change, studies the overall changes of annual average temperature and annual precipitation in Shaanxi province. Meanwhile, to designate as an example climate and phenology of the eight sites of Economic crop units of Shaanxi Province, analysis of the relationship between climate and phenology Julian Day. And then use the R/S method to predict future climate change trends. Analyze the possible effects on the phenology. Conclusions are as follows.(1) Climate characteristics。The eight sites of economic crop units (Luochuan, Tongchuan, Baishui, Fengxiang, Liquan, Pucheng, Binxian, Dali), the past50years the annual average temperature has a ascending trend and the annual precipitation has a devreasing trend.The climate was warmer and drier. The eight sites of economic crop units, the annual average temperature of the mutation from low to high temperatures;In1993years, the Fengxiang precipitation has mutations from more to less. The annual precipitation there is no mutation of the other sites of Economic crop units. The average annual temperature and precipitation are17years,10-12years and4-9year periods.(2) Analysis of the relationship between climate and phenology of the eight sites of Economic crop units of Shaanxi Province from2001to2009years.In the spring, the temperatures gradually increased and precipitation declining, the spring of each phenological growing season in advance, on the contrary the phenological growing season postponed. Phenological growing stage was negatively correlated with temperature. Phenological growing season precipitation was positively correlated. Temperature increased the impact of spring phenology to play a decisive role. Binxian county is an exception, the positively relationship between of pear leaf screen appear, shoot growth and temperature, the higher the temperature, the later phenophase. This may be related to precipitation and other climatic factors. High temperature in July- August, less precipitation, number of long hours of sunshine, real ripe apple and pear fruit coloring and results as early as.The apple and pear fruit coloring and fruit ripening of the phenological growing season was negatively correlated with temperature, was positively correlated with precipitation. High temperature in October-November, less less precipitation, leaves yellow and abscission period gradually postponed. Leaves yellow and abscission periodof phenological growing stage was negatively correlated with temperature and was positively correlated with precipitation. Especially temperature have a decisive impact on the apples, pears, cotton, as temperatures rise, apple, pear this perennial phenology longer growing season, cotton annuals phenological growing season shortened.(3) The possibility of future changes trend of the relationship between climate and phenology of the eight sites of Economic crop units of Shaanxi Province from2001to2009years. The magnitude of the warming of the air temperature, in spring growing season in advance of the spring phenology such as bud stage, flowering, leaf screen and cotton seedling. Fengxiang and Liquan June temperatures continue to rise, shoots stop growing to advance the date. July to August was the type of warm and dry climate of the county, may advance fruit coloring and fruit ripening. July to August was warm and humid climate County fruit coloring and fruit maturity may be delayed. Climate change of June-July of Dali is not obvious, the blooming period, topping such as date changes were not evident.The August weather was cold and wet climate, cracked boll and boll opening period may be early, September was warm and dry climate, crack boll and boll opening delayed. October-November temperature was warm and dry and warm and moist combination of leaves of late. Cotton phenological growing season shortened. Apples and pears perennial woody plant phenology extend growing season.