Henan Province North Of The Huaihe River And Cotton Production Fitness Evaluation Of Climate Change

Climate change has profound ramifications on human natural ecological and social system. Factors such as long-term changes of temperature and precipitation can cause condition changes of vegetation, soil and hydrology. With these factors’interaction and interacting on each other, it may have an important impact on agriculture. Acclimatization can be one of the most important measures responding to the problems of climate change and promoting sustainable development. Henan is a big agricultural province of China. Located in the middle latitudes, global change may produce certain effect on cotton production because of its sensitivity. North of the HuaiHe River is China’s major cotton-producing region. Therefore the evaluation of adaptability to this area is taken for great guiding significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development of agriculture.The paper chooses meteorological data of16sites from the year1951to2007, the daily mean temperature, monthly mean temperature, annual mean temperature, daily precipitation, precipitation, annual precipitation, sunshine duration, in which weather data of Xiangcheng and Lushi has been selected the yeare after1957. This paper firstly uses linear regression, M-K test, t test, sliding SNR, wavelet analysis method to analyze the characteristics of climate change in northern of Huaihe River. Secondly, using principal component analysis, the logistic regression analysis the degree of influence, fuzzy mathematics method and Kriging spatial difference method it evaluates fltnee of Cotton production in north of Huaihe River. Finally using the degree of adaptation and the degree of influence, calculates the cotton control degree, and on the control of large area and zoning control. The results of this study are as follows:(1) In a plurality of influence factor conditions, using principal component analysis two main components are extracted. Which shows that the total production of energy, urban residents living consumption, possession of civil vehicles and the development of the second and tertiary industry have great effect on climate. By the method of principal component analysis and logistic regression model analysis human degree of impactsactivities on climate change, for impacts on climate range between45%-55%in north of Huaihe River, the average degree of influence is50.1%.(2) Average temperature adaptation of cotton goes up generally from the year1951 to2007, the largest growth period is just in blossom period, and the minimum temperature appeared in seeding stage in five growth priods of temperature adaptation. Temperature high adaptation zone is located in the central region, in the north area of Henan Province; the minimum temperature is located in the western region.(3) Cotton moisture adaptation is basically on the rise trend, adaptation degree of sowing stage, seedling stage and budding stage is higher in five reproductive periods, and that of the blossom period and open-boll period relatively is lower. From the space to see, the cotton moisture adaptation gradually reduces from north to south, which is negatively related to the spatial distribution of precipitation.(4) Cotton sunshine adaptation was generally on the rise trend from the year1951to2007. Cotton sunshine fitness from strong to weak is respectively seeding stage, sowing stage, blossom stage, and boll opening stage and squaring stage. From the space to see, the sunshine adaptation was positively correlated with space distribution of precipitation adaptation and was negative correlated with space distribution of water, Minimum sunshine adaptation was located in the south of Nanyang basin, and maximum sunshine adaptation was located in the northeast region of northern Huaihe River.(5) Cotton comprehensive adaptation showed a downward trend from the year1951to2007. Cotton fitness of mutations reduced obviously quickly between former mutations and later mutations. The peak of adaptation of climate change appears in the1960s, cotton adaptation significantly declined sharply in the twenty-first century. From the cotton growing period, sowing fitness has been on the rise in recently57years, others growth period of adaptation shows degressive trend. In the view of average adaptation, the lowest sowing cotton adaptation is at0.54, adaptation degree of seedling stage is the highest at0.79.(6) From the spatial variation, low area of cotton comprehensive adaptation located in the northwest, West, southwest, west, and the south, presenting a kind of dynamic change, low value center presented from Luoyang to Luanchuan to Baofeng to Lushi with dynamic changes, its low value center value was0.44-0.62-0.63-0.58-in0.66, high adaptation value area in the East, North and south, north, East, southwest, north, also presenting a dynamic change. The values fluctuated in the0.77-0.78. From the view of comprehensive situation in57years, the north was strong adaptation area, western was weak. From low value center numerical, low value area value gradually increased, and gradually adapt to climate change, while the northern, Eastern and middle region’s ability to adapt to climate change gradually stabilized.(7) Human need further improve the control ability of cotton production. Mutations previously are0.003/10a rate of rise, the temperature after the mutant is0.011/10a, it is necessary to increase cotton production control ability upon temperature mutation. From the spatial perspective, west is modulated by the high value area, north has been for the regulation of the low value zone, regulation of the high value area to the southwest increasing trend in1980s especially entering into21th, so we need for regulation of cotton production in the West and southwest, in order to improve the yield of cotton. According to adaptation and regulation of cotton production, we need control cotton production of west and southwest.