Time Series Analysis Of Meteorological Phenomena On Daily Hospitalization Counts In Three Cities Of Gansu Province

Objective:(1) Collected the data of meteorological and residents in hospital to analysis the change of the number of daily hospitalization that meteorological elements and temperature related in Lanzhou, Zhangye and Pingliang, then calculated the impaction of meteorological elements on hospitalization rate quantitatively, and discuss the influences of temperature on the number of daily hospitalization.(2)To strengthen health education, protected the vulnerable groups and provided certain theoretical basis for health detection capability and reduced further health effects that caused by climate variation.Methods:Collected the meteorological data and the hospital data at the same time period of residents in Lanzhou city, Zhangye and Pingliang. It is mainly adopts those three statistical software including EXCEL2003, SPSS17.0and R2.14.0according to the monitoring results. With descriptive analysis, independent sample t-test and Pearson correlation methods to analyzed the tendency and correlation between meteorological elements and the number of daily hospitalization in these three cities; to research the influence of meteorological elements of Lanzhou, Pingliang and Zhangye on the number of daily hospitalization of the cardiovascular system diseases, on the basis of controlled for the long-term trend, the week effect with generalized additive model (GAM) Poisson regression.Results:(1)The average daily temperature of Lanzhou in2004-2007showed an increasing trend, but slightly elevated and there has no significal difference (P0.05), when the daily average temperature reached the lowest or the highest, the more number of daily hospitalization of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular relatively; the average air pressure of Lanzhou in the2004-2007period is always maintained at about850hpa, when the pressure to meet the lowest, the more number of daily hospitalization of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular relatively. The average annual humidity in2006and2007is significantly higher than that in2004, the difference has statistically significant (P<0.05); and the number of daily hospitalization of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is relatively stable from January2004to June2006; but it shows modest increase in June2006. The number of daily hospitalization of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Lanzhou is positively correlated with daily highest temperature, average daily temperature, daily lowest temperature, average daily humidity and precipitation (r=0.078, r=0.091, r=0.104, r=0.046and r=0.040); and it is negatively correlated with daily maximum air pressure, the average daily pressure and daily minimum air pressure (r=-0.041, r=-0.044and r=-0.041). Various meteorological elements of Lanzhou effects on the number of daily hospitalization of cardiovascular system disease curve at its lowest level in15℃, respectively,55%and2.2m/s, and this point is called the elements of the optimum. When the real value of all the elements above or below the optimum then continues to rise or to reduce may result in the increase the number of daily hospitalization of cardiovascular system disease.(2) The average daily temperature of Zhangye shows cyclical change in2005-2010, the highest temperature in Summer was30℃degrees. The number of daily hospitalization was increased when the highest temperature was30℃degrees in May2005and the lowest temperature was-20℃in February2008, so there may be non-linear relationship between temperature and the number of daily temperature; The average daily air pressure of Zhangye showing a certain periodicity between840hpa and870hpa, the number of daily hospitalization of the cardiovascular system diseases increased in August2005when average daily pressure is relatively low. To some extent, the average daily humidity change interval in Zhangye, the performance of the summer and autumn than in spring and winter and which may be related to the special geographical location and climatic conditions. The number of daily hospitalization in Zhangye is positively correlated with daily highest temperature, average daily temperature, daily lowest temperature, average daily air pressure and precipitation (r=0.083, r=0.079, r=0.077, r=0.020and r=0.020); and it is negatively correlated with daily highest air pressure, the daily lowest air pressure and humidity (r=-0.028. r=-0.015and r=-0.013). The optimum temperature, humidity and wind speed is13℃3.5m/s and45%, and when the real value of all the elements above or below the optimal, then continues to rise or to reduce may result the number of daily hospitalization increased of cardiovascular system disease.(3) The change of average daily temperature in Pingliang showing the periodic, the daily lowest temperature in winter was relatively higher compared with Lanzhou and Zhangye. The number of daily hospitalization of the cardiovascular.system diseases remain in a lower level before November2007but there is an obvious stably increase after November2007, this may be related to the large area of snow in2008, so the lower temperature may lead to the increase in the number of daily hospitalization. The average daily air pressure changed in850-885hpa interval and that higher than Lanzhou and Zhangye. The average daily air pressure maintained at the highest level of880hpa in January2008, and at this time, the more number of daily hospitalization; The average daily humidity around60%, and it showed no obvious cyclical, so we cannot be determined whether the average daily temperature changes impact the number of daily hospitalizatioa The number of daily hospitalization in Pingliang is positively correlated with daily highest temperature, average daily temperature, daily lowest temperature, average daily humidity and precipitation(r=0.054, r=0.077, r=0.097, r=0.158and r=0.061); and it is negatively correlated with daily highest air pressure, average pressure and daily lowest air pressure(r=-0.056, r=-0.043and r=-0.027). The optimum temperature, air pressure, humidity and wind speed is10℃.857hpa,2.5m/s and65%, and when the real value of all the elements above or below the optimal, then continues to rise or to reduce may result the number of daily hospitalization increased of cardiovascular system disease.Conclusion:(1) The change of meteorological elements in Lanzhou, Zhangye and Pingliang showed that the trend of the average daily temperature in the three cities had increased year by year, but this change between the two years had no significant difference (P>0.05). There were certain relationship among these three cities of meteorological elements.(2) There was a correlation between the increased number of daily hospitalization and the changes in meteorological elements. And the changes in meteorological elements maybe a risk factor for the change of the number of daily hospitalization.