| BACKGROUNDHealth improvement of the whole nation is a symbol of social harmony, and is the proper meaning of building a well-off society, and is the fundamental purpose of the health service development. Human resources for health is the part that is of activeness in health resources. A team of highly qualified health personnel with stores of knowledge, spirits of innovation, and advanced skills, is the forever motive force of health development. Whether the number of human resources for health is adequate, the quality is qualified, the distribution is balanced, the structure is reasonable, management is scientific in a country or region, not only affects the quality and quantity of health services directly, but also influences the happiness of people’s lives and social stability.In recent years, along with people’s continuously rising requirement on quality and quantity of human resources for health, the distribution and program of human resources has been paid more attention. Since China’s foundation, the health of our country has made great progress, however, there still exists the phenomenon of imbalanced health human. Shandong province is no exception, either. Therefore, it is an urgent need to strengthen researches on human resources, in the hope of providing basis for adjusting and optimizing current human resource stocks and future increments, promoting the equilibrium coordination development of the whole health, and meeting the needs of building of a overall well-off society.OBJECTIVESBy analyzing the current configuration of human resource for health in Shandong province, the article tries to identify the laws of developments and changes and the fairness of the demographic and geographical distribution, to analyze current problems on configuration of human resource for health, and finally, to seek solutions to those problems. At the same time, the article sets up a GM(1,1) prediction model of the number of the health workforce, and then combined with the actual situation, the article made a prediction of the health workforce of the next four years in Shandong province, and analyze the developing trends.METHODOLOGYBy utilizing the national and provincial health statistics of recent years, using descriptive statistical analysis methods, the study analyzes the current situation of human resource allocation and its dynamic trend. Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient are made use of to measure the fairness of demographic and geographic configuration of human resources (as for different qualified doctors, we adopt a heterogeneity point of view). Gray predictive model GM(1,1) was established to forecast the number of health workers of human resource for health in the following four years (2016) in Shandong province. For data processing, this study use Excel of Microsoft Office and gray system theory modeling system3.0data processing software.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSProblems about health workforce of Shandong province are unbalance of doctors and nurses, low per thousand population health workforce indicators, and low educational level and senior technical titles. Proportion of doctors and nurses in2009in Shandong province was1:0.78. According to the recommends of the Ministry of Health, the proportion in rural area should be1:1, and in urban areas,1:2, so there still exists apparent shortage of nurses. While59.36%of the health technicians in the province is concentrated in cities and hospitals, other regions and other health agencies have far less. People of senior technical titles only accounts for1.3%. There is still large room for improvement of human resource for health. The allocation of health workforce is uneven. Although the Gini distribution coefficient of various types of health workers in Shandong province shows equitable, the regional differences of health technicians per thousand population are still large.RECOMMENDATIONSFirstly, enlargement the training of nurses, health managers and other technical personnel, change the phenomenon of "highlighted doctors and belittled nurses", and enhance the quality of managers and other technical personnel. Secondly, guide graduates and staff-in-post to flow to rural and backward areas. The government should use administrative means to develop the system tilted to the rural and backward areas, so health manpower development of those areas can be faster than the cities and developed regions, eventually reach a balanced level. Thirdly, the government should also encourage the rational flow of health workforce, combine quantity and quality together to improve the fairness of the distribution of staff. Fourthly, health institutions promote human resource management system establishment. Finally, strengthen coordination and communication between health and education sectors, guide health workforce incubation with requirement forecast. |
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