Study Of Mathematical Epidemiology By Vaccinable Disease’s Prevalent Trend In Guangxi

Objective To analysis the time-series characteristics of vaccinable disease incidence and mortality in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, establish the mathematical model which correspond the change of incidence track, explore feasibility of application extension, provide the reference of vaccinable disease programming and emergency preventive measures in Guangxi.Method Collecting data of population and vaccinable disease in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from1989to2009, and analysis data by descriptive epidemiological methods and mathematical epidemiological methods, compare and analyse R2, screening the mathematical model which is the best fitting vaccinable disease’s changing track, at the same time, forecasting the trend of future, examining the scientific and practical of mathematical model. Result Analysis results showed that there were totally1191789incidents and5382deaths of the vaccinable disease in Guangxi from1989to2008.(1) Obvious prevention and cure effect of vaccinable disease:The incidence of pertussis, diphtheria, tetanus and polio, Hepatitis B were declining in the20years; The level of Medical treatment is rising:Mortality of vaccinable disease was declined obviously (Except1993), mortality of measles, polio, diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus were declining steady, but mortality of tuberculosis and Hepatitis B were undulate rising in recent years;(2) Death spectrum changed effective by the prevention and control:Guangxi tetanus is the first on the disease mortality from1989to2003, but the first death is tuberculosis between2004and2008;(3) vaccinable disease morbidity has a rather apparent trend:Curve regression mode is the best fitting effect:Hepatitis B (R2=0.91); The best model is ARIMA model:measles (R2=0.68), tuberculosis (R2=0.84), polio (R2=0.55), exponential smoothing model fitting effect is the best have tetanus (R2=0.74), diphtheria (R2=0.56), pertussis (R2=0.45), all of those models have certain outreach forecasting ability. Conclusion Vaccinable disease can be controlled effectively through the immune programming system’s intervention, especially the polio, measles, pertussis, diphtheria and tetanus has achieve the basic destroy target gradually, and also has a remarkable decrease rules, but the incidence of TB still high because of finding mass screening cases,so it is a long way to go. Hepatitis B has continue high incidence, Hepatitis B is a still serious public health problem although bring into the immune programming from2008, at the same time,immunization gradually realize urban and rural school-age children complete coverage. So the studies of carry out the mathematical epidemiological is helpful to timely, effective and scientific evaluation vaccinable disease control, and has a important practical significance for planning control prevalence trends...