The Application Of Seasonal Trend Model In The Population Diagnosed With Dysentery

A forecast is the analysis of the trend of something based on the previous statistics. It entails modern technology and methods as well as sagacity and sharp judgment. The assessment and analysis of the forecast can be used to guide its development and reduces the indefinites of its future.As an important method of management, the forecast is the precondition of policy and plan making.However, forecasting bias due to the improper application of the method will cause errors to its accuracy and the policymaking. Therefore, it is the precondition of ensuring the accuracy to employ a proper forecasting method.The seasonal growing trend forecasting method will decompose and systematize various variations in chronological order. It can offset the long-term trend variation, the cyclical variation and random variation to reflect the seasonal variation with accuracy. Meanwhile, it takes the trend and seasonality into consideration, making the forecast more practical with reference value as well as sound adjustability. This method is a statistic method commonly employed to predict the quarterly index with both long-term variation and seasonality taken into accounts.This essay applies the seasonal growing trend forecasting method to make prediction of population of patients by using those of patients between January 2004 and December 2007 to supply basis for the dysentery prevention in Dafuerji Region, Qiqihar in Heilongjiang Province.