Research On Public Transport Mode Choice Based On The Prospect Theroy

With the rapid economic and social development and the ever-accelerating urbanization andmobilization，the urban traffic demand takes up a unprecedented escalation. The consequences areincreasingly serious urban traffic problems and tough challenges for the urban traffic system. As theexperience drawn from urban transportation development both at home and abroad shows, to vigorouslydevelop public transport and build an urban passenger transportation structure with it as the main body hasbeen the key link of the urban traffic sustainable development. It should be noted that the public transportmodes needed vary with regions due to the different levels of regional socioeconomic development.Therefore, how to better allocate the public transport resources according to the actual needs of citydevelopment, which contributes to the real realization of public transport priority development then bettersolve the urban traffic problem, is a problem need to be focused on. In the background of public transportpriority development at home, and with the city residents’ mode choice between Bus-Rote and urban RailTransit taken as research object, the "prospect theory" was adopted to study residents’ trip mode choicebehavior in order to lay the foundation for the rationally allocation of public transport resources.Firstly, the basic characteristics of urban Rail transit and Bus-Rote were summarized, and theirrespective service objects were qualitatively analyzed. Secondly, the process of residents’ trip mode choicewas described, based on which the influence factors were thoroughly analyzed and then quantified. Basedon the above analysis, the development course of trip decision theory was elaborated. Through comparisonamong different theories, the superiority of the prospect theory was revealed. Its connotation and feasibilityof using it to study residents’ choice of public transport modes were studied then. Grounded on the publictransport mode choice model based on the "prospect theory", the way to determine the reference point wasgiven. The subjective probability function and decision weighting function were also constructed. A soundtheoretical model of residents’ public transport mode choice was then built, and the prospect values of eachmode were calculated. According to the calculated results, the mode with the maximum prospect value wasthe chosen one.Finally, a virtual travel scene was constructed. Through a SP survey corresponding to the scene, thescientificalness and applicability of the model in this paper were tested and verified.