Modelling And Simulation Of Water Resources Oriented To Sustainable Utilization

With the contradiction between the growing water requirement and the decreasingavailable water resources becoming increasingly serious, the research on sustainableutilization of water resources has attracted more and more attention to it. Sustainableutilization of water resources is a new mode of water resources utilization under the frame ofsustainable development, and the only method to solve the water resources crisis. Modelprediction control has enormous potential for application to constrained control problems,where the aim is to maximise suitably defined benefit while keeping risk and cost withinconstraints, so it is suitable for Quantitative study of sustainability issues. To realizesustainable utilization of water resources and offer a quantitative reference for the relatedpolicy analysis, combining Prometheus, this paper discusses a stochastic predictive controland simulation model for sustainable utilization of water resources according the relationshipsamong water quantity, price and quality. Taking direct drinking water project of XinfengRiver Reservoir in Guangdong province for example, it predicts water resources configurationwithin10years.At first, the thesis analyzes the specific meaning and principles of sustainable utilizationof water resources, and the problems it confronting with. The study on resources value ofwater in developed countries are introduced and analyzed, and valuable experiences arepointed out compared with China’s situation. Then it introduces water resource environmentof Xinfeng River and the direct drinking water project, discusses social demand of directdrinking water of some cities in Guangdong Province and selects three basicindicators——water quantity, water price and water quality under the premise of consideringrandom factors. Afterward with the analysis and assessment basis for sustainable utilization ofwater resources, combining Prometheus, the paper establishes open-loop model andclosed-loop model and explore their algorithms. At last, using the rolling optimizationconcept in predictive control for reference, it predicts index data of water quantity, water priceand water quality in the coming years using the practical data of water resources of XinfengRiver Reservoir, and offers a quantitative reference for the management and decision-makingof relevant departments.