Study On Health Assessment Of Water-based System In Dongjiang Basin

With population growth and economic development, human had a great demand for waterresources, the contradiction between water supply and demand become more and moreserious.In order to meet the increasing demand of water, people made a series transformationof nature rivers, such as The south-to-north water diversion project, Three gorges project andso on. The transforms changed the original water system a lot, such as made it covering awider area and having more influencing factors. We should study water resources system froma broader perspective. Liu Ning put forward the concept of water-based systems andidentified that is the basis ecological environment carrying system constituted by the water insome hydrological scale and space, related wading media and wading projects..This paper taking Dongjiang River Basin as the study object, the health evaluation indexsystem of Dongjiang water-based is constructed according to the connotation of water-basedsystem. I selected25indicators from the attribute of stability, concordance degree and thestatus of evaluation. I determined the weights of the indicators by the Analytic Hirearchyprocess and the rough set theory, and then got comprehensive weight according to the resultsof the average weight. On this basis, used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and set pairanalysis methods, the health status of water-based system for Dongjiang basin is analyzedfrom the attribute of stability, concordance degree and the rate of evaluation from2005to2030. The results show that the water-based system of Dongjiang basin is at medium healthstatus from2005to2010, in2020, the system will achieve healthy state, and after that timethe system will be keeping in healthy and stable state.Based on the value Dongjiang River Basin indexes from2005to2010, I used the systemdynamics method to predicte the health state of the water-based systems from2011to2030and got the changes of various indicators. This can also provide a scientific foundation forpromoting healthy development of water-based systems.Found on the study of the water-based system in Dongjiang River Basin, the systemtowards to health status, most of the indicators status improves gradually. But some individualindicators are still low, for example, development rate of water resources and waterconsumption per10,000Yuan’s GDP are high, water resources are wasted seriously. To makethe development of the water-based system in Dongjiang River Basin toward better and morehealthy direction, we must take effective measures to improve the current state of system,such as enhancing water conservation management, enhancing awareness of water conservation; improving the efficiency of industrial water, reducing water consumption per10,000Yuan’s GDP, reducing development rate of water resources and so on.