Research On City’s Grid Plan Risk Evaluation And Its Prevent Strategy

With the rapid economic development, the demand for electricity is growing irrational energy structure and uneven distribution would severely hinder the development of economic and power industry. With the advent power grid, smart gric development, as well as new energy and network problems, effective and rational planning of the grid. The focus of future development of China’s power will be the construction of the municipal distribution network, the main problem is to do urbar distribution network "progress, come to need them". The key to solving this problem lies in the municipal distribution network planning. The right to carry out a risk analysis of municipal distribution network planning and scientific evaluation of the cost-effectiveness is the key to good municipal distribution network planning. Therefore, this paper distribution network planning and risk management theory, to identify the source of the risk of distribution network planning, establish a municipal distribution network planning risk evaluation index system, and gives the municipal distribution network planning risk assessment the distribution network planning, and Binh Duong City "Eleventh Five-Year" empirical analysis, combined with the results of empirical analysis given the risk aversion strategy. Provide a reference for later distribution network planning risk aversion. In this paper the work done as follows:(1) this paper describes the distribution network planning theory and risk management theory provides a theoretical basis for the following.(2) this paper is starting from the municipal distribution network planning, sources of risk identification, policy risk, technology risk, economic risk and management risk analysis, summed up the four main risk factors, according to the principle of construction of the index system to build municipal distribution network planning risk assessment index system, and gives the municipal distribution network planning risk assessment methods, and pointed out that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is suitable for municipal distribution network planning risk assessment.(3) this paper give Pingyang City "11th Five-Year Development please Pingyang City" Eleventh Five-Year, followed by the given distribution network the planning of control, according to the implementation of the Binh Duong City "11th Five-distribution network planning for risk assessment, and gives the final result.(4) according to previously established index system and empirical analysis, respectively, the prevent strategy of risk are given.