The Risk Evaluation Research On Urban Power Network Planning Project

With the rapid development of national economy and the gradual improvement of people’s living level, the electric energy demand to each field is increasing. In order to meet the growing electricity demand, the power system scale must be enhanced and the structure of the power system must be improved. Along with the power reform, the development and construction of power grid should be speed up and consummated under the background of new era. Power network planning plays a very important role in the whole power system construction. The good or bad of a planning scheme is directly related to the successful sent of electrical power from the power plant to the user. It also has an important role in the safe and stable operation of the system and the long-term development of the national economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to build a scientific and practical comprehensive evaluation system for regional power grid.First of all, this paper summarizes the evaluation methods of power network planning, expounds the content and the criterion of the power network planning evaluation research, and discusses the specific process of the evaluation of power grid planning. On this basis, the basic theory of risk identification, risk assessment, risk aversion is studied. Through careful analysis of the current situation and the characteristics of the region, the evaluation index system meeting the grid planning criteria is established, and the each indicator of this system is introduced in detail. Secondly, the risk assessment model of urban power network planning based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is established by combining fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the "13th-five-year" planning project of Linyi grid is choose as a case and the main contents and the main problems existed of the plan are described. The comprehensive evaluation research of this plan is discussed using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process under the consideration of the technical risk, economic risk, management risk and policy risk of the plan. The results showed a small risk and a good overall efficiency of the project, can ease pressure on power supply to meet the needs of the development of local load, which will help enhance the city grid reliability, as well as its own power grid enterprises has brought huge profits, but also greatly promote the social and economic benefits. This plan has a strong practice and learns.