Study On Water Saving Management Decision-making Of Jining City Based On System Dynamics

Average amount of annual water resource in Jining, Shandong Province is4,595,000,000m~3with558m~3for each person, which is less than1/4of the national standard., Besides,water resource distribution is uneven temporally and spatially, development and utilization areof different levels. With the coexistence of severe resource-oriented, engineering-oriented andquality-oriented water scarcity in this region, water shortage can reach400,000,000~700,000,000m~3in dry years. In fact, the shortage of water resources is greatly hinderingsocial and economic development. In order to support and meet the demand of water resourcefor economic and social development， the management of water resources is still faced withgreat challenges. Total amount of water resources is limited, while the water demand is on therise. Therefore, we have to solve the problem of water shortage fundamentally by seeking forsolutions to deal with the conflict between water shortage and social development, which hasrealistic meaning for Jining.This thesis focuses on Jining’s water resources and the current situation and developmentdemand of this city’s social economy, starting with the analysis of the complex system aboutpopulation，economy，resources and environment, in order to realize the balance of supply anddemand of water resources, establish the dynamic model of water-saving management systemin Jining and quantitatively analyze the regulation and control of wading measures throughvariable control, project designing and water-saving effect evaluation, providing strategyinformation for the management of water-saving.First investigate the current situation of the development of society and economy in Jiningin the recent10years. Get the structure of water consumption and water consumption dataabout production, living and ecosystem and related basic data of social and economy. Thenanalyze and evaluate the water resource, water supply and demand structure and waterenvironmental quality of Jining so as to find out the characteristics of present situation ofwater resources utilization and existing problems.Next, adopt the systematic dynamics theory to analyze Jining’s water resources systemwith2009as the target year, establish the water system dynamic model, imitate and forecastthe population，water resource，social economy，sewage treatment and the recycled waterreuse subsystem’s water demand under the normal development mode.Based on the analysis of Jining’s situation and the twelfth five-year-plan，the whole modelis divided into four subsystems—population, social economy, water and sewage treatmentand recycled water exploitation. The main function of this model is to simulate the Jining’s water consumption changes during the program implementation process. Therefore, with thepopulation and social economy subsystem as the structure entry point，the water resourcessystem acts as the core, depending on the environmental system. Subsystems relate to eachother via the input and output of substance and information, which comprises the feedbackstructure of this mode.Through the simulation analysis, the tendency of the water resources development andutilization is known. Then, put forward different recommended schemes and simulate Jining’swater supply and demand quantity and water shortage through the systematic dynamicsimulation under different recommended schemes. Next, select the optimal scheme ofwater-saving management and provide policy suggestions and measures of water-savingmanagement.