Research On The Synchronization Of Bus Networks Based On The Running Time Reliability

With the improvement of people’s life quality and the development of the auto industry in our country, the process of urbanization and motorization speeds up quickly, under the pressure of urbanization and motorization, the residents’travel demand grows rapidly. The contradictions between this increasing demand and the relatively backward public transportation infrastructure, between the increasing demand and the relatively backward management means are the main contradiction of the city public traffic system. The theory of bus transit networks synchronization can be used to alleviate the above contradiction. In abroad, the synchronization of bus transit networks has already been used to solve the real problems and has achieved a good result, but its research in the domestic is still in the primary stage and the scholars in our country usually study the problem as0-1knapsack problem. And in the study they assumed that the running time of bus vehicles between two transfer stations is fixed which is not according with the reality.Considering the above problems, the thesis aims to analysis the reliability of the buses’running time, build the synchronization model of the bus networks based on the reliability, and make the research more realistic. More specifically, the thesis researches the synchronization of the bus networks from the following aspects:(1) Calculate the running reliability of the buses. Investigate the running time of the bus vehicles, get some useful data, analyze the data, do distribution fitting of the data and make sure the destiny distribution function of the running time. After the above work, build the model which is aimed to calculate the reliability of the running time. Then carry on multiple trials using the Monte Carlo method, and get the approximation of the running time reliability.(2) Build the synchronization model of bus networks based on the running time reliability. There are three aspects to point out:firstly, the objective function of the model is to minimize the passengers’transfer time between two different transfer stations; secondly, the independent variables of the model is the adjustment value of the first bus vehicle’s departure time of each bus line during the period of the study; thirdly, the running time data in the model are stochastic variables. Design the improved genetic algorithm to find the solution to the model and get the adjustment value of the first bus vehicle’s departure time of each bus line during the study period, and then establish the synchronization timetable.(3) The empirical analysis. Take the simple bus transit network including the route146、route111and route107bus line for example to verify the above research contents. And from the results we can conclude that the synchronization of bus transit networks can achieve good effects under the current running time reliability...