The Study Of Water Demand Prediction And Water Resources Sustainable Development Strategy Of Tianjin

Nowadays the fresh water resources are quite limited all over the world. With the acceleration of population, the improvement of the people's living standards and the development of economy, the rapid increase of water demand lead to serious contradiction between the supply and demand. The crisis of water resources has become one of the greatest concerns for statesmen and scholars around the world. Water shortage is a great problem for china, too. Tianjin severely suffers the shortage of water resources. The scarcity of water has hindered the economic development.The characteristic and primary problems of water resources of Tianjin are discussed in this dissertation. According to the function of water resources utilization, the city water demand system is divided into four subsystems, which correspond to the water demand of the resident living, primary industry, industry and entironment. These systems have interaction and restriction. By adopting the economic production value per person and the number of person employed, the water demand of per ten-thousand outcomes is predicted by the model of multiple regressions. The dynamic water demand model is firstly established for Tianjin.By carefully comparing the results of different models, the dynamic model is chosen to predict the water demand of Tianjin. According to this model, the water demand of Tianjin is 2.675 billion m3 in the year of 2020. In this prediction, the most parts of water are consumed by the primary industry, but the largest water consumer will be replaced by the industry in the coming few years. Some major factors, such as water price, industry structure,population and precipitation, influence severely the demand of water. By carefully balancing these four factors, the strategy of sustainable utilization for water resources and the theory of sustainable development of Tianjin economy are presented. At the same time, we predict that the max of total demand water of the primary industry and industry is 2.854 billion m3 by Logistic model.Water demand is very necessary for planning the city development and arranging water supply. The prediction model presented here establishes a good theoretical basis for building water saving society and offers useful reference to other prediction.