| The Shiyang River Basin is an inland river basin in Hexi District, GansuProvince, in which the population is the largest, the degree of water developmentand utilization is the highest, the contradiction of using water is the sharpest, theecological and environmental problem is the most serious, and the conditionality ofwater on economic and social development is the strongest. Therefore, waterresources of the Shiyang River Basin need to be developed and utilized legitimatelyto improve the efficiency of the water utilization and solve the competition of usingwater between the various departments and industries (including environmental andecological water). Therefore, it is an effective way that the optimal allocation of thewater resources is to solve the water shortage and balance the supply and demand.The research of the optimal allocation of the water resources has great significanceto promote regional sustainable development in society, economy and environment.The main contents in this paper are as following:(1) based on the data of theShiyang River Basin, analyze the methods, classification and influencing factors ofthe water demand forecast, establish the weighted geometric mean combiningforecasting model in this paper, optimize the combining weight with the geneticalgorithm. The predictive value is obtained through these weights multiplying by thecorresponding the predicted value of prediction model, the superiority-inferiority ofthe combining forecast model is illustrated through the examples, and this method isapplied to agricultural water forecast in this river basin.(2) According to theexisting problems of water resources of the Shiyang River Basin, on the basis ofcomprehensive consideration of the economic, social and ecological objectives, themaximal comprehensive benefits of industry, life, ecological environment andagricultural water is taken as the optimal objective. The multi-objective optimalallocation model of water resources is established and solved by the improvedmethod of goal attainment method and multi-objective genetic algorithms. Analyzethe programs and select the different optimal allocations according to the benefitvalue. Finally, evaluate these programs through the TOPSIS model and obtain thatthe best one is the total water consumption is1.9014billion m~3, the industrial waterconsumption is0.3342billion m~3, the domestic water consumption is0.1046billionm~3, the ecological water consumption is0.12billion m~3, and the agricultural water consumption is1.3426billion m~3, it will provide a theoretical basis for the Shiyangriver basin water resources optimal allocation. |
