Water Resources Evolution And Its Influencing Factor During Last 2000 Years In The Shiyang River Basin

This text based on other people's study, aim at shortage in current water resources variety research. First of all, expatiated on the evolve process of Shiyang river during last 2000 years and current conditions. And then, made use of ice core, tree ring, chlorine and so on, to educe the precipitation and temperature curve of Shiyang river basin, reestablish the process of climate change. And then, made a retrospect of human activity, analyzed the infection of water resources by weather change and human activity.The research discovered, the weather variation of Shiyang river basin can be divide into 6 warm periods and 5 cold periods, but the precipitation variety can divide into 5 dry periods and 5 wet periods;But the variation of temperature and precipitation was non synchronous. Although the variational frequency of temperature was higher than precipitation's, its variety range is less violent than precipitation's;The characteristic of climate was becoming warm and dry gradually since from 19 century in Shiyang river basin. The terminal lake water quantity was vitally relate to climatic variety in this district, water resources quantity would reduce gradually with climat became dry and increase with accretion of rainfall. The main factor of affect water resources quantity was climate variation during last 2000 years.The population should be a most important index that show the strength of human activity in every index of humanities factor that affect the water resources. According to international standard, the population should be controled within 300 thousand in Shiyang river basin, but the population of Shiyang river basin always less than 300 thou sand during last 1800 years from East-Han to Qing dynasty, Human's effect on water resources was very little, belong to the reasonable area. From 1800AD on to Minguo dynasty, fast increment in population, has head and shoulders above 300 thousand, the human activity began impact on water resources more intensively that before.Last, made the multi-index linear regression analysis with water quantity in Hongya mountain reservoir and other indexes near 50 years, the correlation coefficient of equation is 0.911, F-levene value is 33.184, verify probability P<0.05, but there are 3 index haven't pass when process the t-levene. Though examine found it made by characteristic of multi-index in one linear. With the result that, change to the main component regression analysis, received 3 maincomponents, their explained rate was 55.42%, 20.82% and 16.55% of variance respectively, the total variance explained rate was 92.79%. Then explain those main components as humanness factor, temperature factor and precipitation factor according to their eigenvector. Substitute those factors for original variable to made regression analysis, the correlation coefficient of equation is 0.865, F-levene value is 35.616, verify probability P<0.05, moreover, all factor have passed the t-levene, the result of regression function was very good. According to the regression function, human activity play a leading negative function, its effect has accounted for -58.46 percent of total effect, head and shoulders above precipitation factor that accounted for 22.35 percent of total effect. Moreover, although temperature factor's effect was small, only accounted for -19.19 percent of total effect, it further the trend of water resources decrease.