Research On Spatial Simulation And Prediction Of Urban Expansion

Urban spatial expansion is the most direct manifestation of the urban land use change, and it is also the comprehensive reflection of the spatial distribution and structural changes in the process of urbanization. With the advance of global urbanization, urban spatial expansion has become a hot area of urban development research at home and abroad. Couple with China’s rapid development of urbanization and urban economy, the wave of urbanization characterized by urban spatial expansion has brought the urban construction unprecedented dynamism, in the meantime cities in spatial expansion and sprawl has brought a range of issues. Thereby, the increasingly acute contradiction between urban land supply and demand has become one of the major challenges China will be faced with in present and future decades. Under the background of the widely recognized in the concept of urban space management, a reasonable and orderly urban spatial expansion has strategic significance in China. Correspondingly the simulation and prediction research of urban expansion has an important and urgent social-economic demand.This article constructs a relatively integrated urban spatial expansion of the research framework on the basis of summarized existing theoretical and empirical research on urban spatial expansion, following the ideas of the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis, static analysis and dynamic analysis. By using the methods and techniques of literature analysis, the method of mathematical statistical analysis and GIS spatial analysis, this article build a logistic regression model of urban spatial expansion simulation, and successfully simulate and predict urban space expansion taking Beijing as the empirical case. This research mainly includes the following three aspects:(1) Review the theoretical and empirical study of urban spatial development. Summarized the theoretical and empirical research of urban expansion, a comprehensive understanding, including the temporal and spatial process of urban expansion, the complex factors of urban spatial expansion,as well as the spatial extension of the former city simulation and prediction of the status quo, has been acquired. Accordingly to build the overall research framework of this article; (2) Build a simulation model of urban spatial expansion. This article built a multivariate logistic regression model of urban expansion development, by comprehensive selected four complex impact location factors:the natural geographical location, the transportation advantage location, the economic geographical location and the development policies location. This Model could compute the block probability for the construction of urban space with GIS grid, which automatically selects the land for future development of urban expansion, thus resulting achieve the simulation of urban spatial expansion. (3) Simulate and forecast the spatial expansion, taking Beijing as the empirical case. This article successfully simulated and predicted the expansion of Beijing under the the different conditions scenarios, such as different pace of development and different patterns of urban development, etc.This is an application of basic theoretical research in order to reveal the law of urban expansion as the theme. A scientific urban growth simulation model was established, and then the empirical case Beijing’s space expansion was effectively simulated and predicted. This research has some theoretical significance to enrich models and methods of urban spatial expansion simulation, and that has important practical significance to strengthen the management of urban space, to control and guide the rational growth of the urban expansion, and to improve the scientific and rational layout of urban and rural construction land. Finally, the result could provide a basis for decision making for urban planning and management of urban space.